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Old 10-03-2010, 12:40 PM   #41
bheidelburg
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Denver
Posts: 125
My Ride: 2000 323i
Quote:
Originally Posted by socal323ci View Post
funny... yahoo auto puts the depreciation of a 328i 2011 at 36% in 5 years...

so 36200 after 5 years and given its driven 12000/year 23168 @ 60000 miles

what are your thoughts on this...
A quick check on BMWUSA.com for a model search on CPO 328i shows several 2007s in the 23K to 28K range. I saw a 2007 335i recently for $26K. 2009's are already approching 30 - 32K, so a 2011 maintaining a value of 36K after 5 years seems farcical.

Wonder what they have been smoking over at Yahoo?

If you assume a car is good for 200K and 10 years a good value would be a car that is cheaper than the true depreciation of the actual asset regardless of price.

So If you assume the metric above and then assume the vehicle has a nominal salvage value of say, 2500 and the new cost is 45K then you depreciate the vehicle at 43K/10 or $4300 per year. This does not assuume the fickle consumer's estimation of value but the actual consumption of the car. Therefore a car that is three years old with no more than 60K off the odometer with an original cost of $45K would not be worth more than $32K. So if you can find a 3 year old CPO for less than 32K and fewer than 60K on the odometer is a fair price but not a bargain.

Now members of this forum will immediately see the flaw in this reasoning in that after about 125K miles maintenance goes up! Therefore for the straight consumption method to work, after 3 years you would also like to see a further reduction of 15% of the estimated non-routine maintenance repairs.

If you assume that these cars will experience $9000 (this assumes parts and labor at an indy shop. if you DIY you can spend more but why would you want to?) in non-routine maintenance repairs in it's later years (125K to 200K) then you would like to see a further 1350 off the price of the car. So now you are looking at roughly 30,650 after three years and fewer than 60K.

So the cars I see on the CPO site that are 26 - 29K are a relative bargain.

Of Course the esteemed dmax may have a different calculation as he has extracted over 300K from his '99 but that appears to be the exception so far. 200K seems to be where most of the highest mileage E46s land on this forum and it seems very few are original owners.

Last edited by bheidelburg; 10-03-2010 at 12:43 PM. Reason: Clarification
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