You live in AZ, don't even think about getting the xi.
Have you actually gotten an insurance quote for the M3, or are you assuming it'd be more? If you didn't get the quote, do so - you may just be surprised. My rates only went up ~$150/year when I upgraded from my 2003 330i to my 2005 M3 (if I went from 03 to 03, the increase would've been less).
My vote is for the M3. Otherwise, I'd say 330i/ci ZHP. I don't want to start a whole ZHP vs non debate, but if your current car has sports package already, a 330 won't feel that special too you. The ZHP has *just* enough extra tweaks that it feels nice. Of course once you throw modding into the picture, there's very little difference.
Mini is cool too, but I don't have experience with one so I can't comment.
Last edited by TerraPhantm; 02-22-2011 at 11:55 AM.