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Old 12-29-2011, 02:49 PM   #1059
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Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: Acworth, GA
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GLD/SPY is back under 1.2 (a critical level in recent years), holding right at the 20 month moving average. Also, JNK/LQD is almost at .34 in a close to inverted H&S pattern. So, why is this important? It is important because these are two very good indicators of whether the market is "risk on" or "risk off." In recent years, GLD/SPY under 1.2 has been characteristic of a risk on market environment and JNK/LQD over .35 has been another good indicator of a risk on market environment. If GLD/SPY stays under 1.2, or continues to fall, while JNK/LQD continues to rise (especially through .35) then I would not advise being short anything unless you were really sure. The large rally from spring '09- spring '11 occurred under these conditions in a risk on market environment; the same environment we look to be headed into right now.
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