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Old 10-27-2012, 05:29 PM   #1481
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Originally Posted by Raymond42262 View Post
It's funny, Italy prosecutes seismologists for failing to predict earthquakes and the U.S . says we are not at the level that we can predict them. The guy that predicted the North Ridge earthquake in California in 1991 was fired.

I feel sorry for those Italians. They were looking for someone to blame and they were easy targets.
I think you're right. It seems to me (being far from an expert) that the Italian govt has a habit of arresting people and trying them for things we in the US consider non-criminal.

The example that stands out most for me was Senna's fatal crash. Something like a half dozen people (team members and race organizers IIRC) were charged with manslaughter. But I've also heard over the years of it happening with other things, too.

I'm also not a geologist. But I know a thing or two about communicating technical information to large groups of non-technical people, and it's no small challenge to get them to understand what you know and how sure you are of what you're dealing with.

I'm sure geologists and govt entities around the world face the same conundrum of how/when to issue quake warnings. They can't issue a warning every time the needle moves. After about 3 of those warnings with no quakes, everyone would quit listening.

But unless there was evidence presented (that's not mentioned in the article) of gross negligence or extreme incompetence, it seems to me the Italian govt's has some unreasonable expectations.
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