E46 BMW Social Directory E46 FAQ 3-Series Discussion Forums BMW Photo Gallery BMW 3-Series Technical Information E46 Fanatics - The Ultimate BMW Resource BMW Vendors General E46 Forum The Tire Rack's Tire Wheel Forum Forced Induction Forum The Off-Topic The E46 BMW Showroom For Sale, For Trade or Wanting to Buy

Welcome to the E46Fanatics forums. E46Fanatics is the premiere website for BMW 3 series owners around the world with interactive forums, a geographical enthusiast directory, photo galleries, and technical information for BMW enthusiasts.

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest which gives you limited access to view most discussions and access our other features. By joining our free community you will have access to post topics, communicate privately with other members (PM), respond to polls, upload content and access many other special features. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free so please, join our community today!

If you have any problems with the registration process or your account login, please contact contact us.

Go Back   E46Fanatics > Everything Else > The Off-Topic > Money Matters

Money Matters
Financial, Stock, Investment etc. posts here.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Rate Thread Display Modes
Old 07-25-2011, 01:38 PM   #1
ImPulSe
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: NYC & Long Island
Posts: 751
My Ride: Bentley GT
Which stocks will plumet the most due to the default issue, then rise down the road?

Which stocks do you guys think will take a major hit but become a good investment in the long-run?

We all know its gonna happen
ImPulSe is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 07-27-2011, 01:31 PM   #2
Mayo
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Calgary, Ab
Posts: 297
My Ride: CBR600RR
Ford
__________________
TopasBlau 330Ci
M-Tech II || Borla Catback || Bilstein PSS || K&N CAI ||Shark Injected || eBay headers ||
DICE Silverline || Smoked LED Tails/Sidemarkers || Clear Corners || 18" x 8.5/9.5 Forgestar F14's on Kumho

Mayo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-28-2011, 10:08 AM   #3
Raymond42262
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: The South
Posts: 453
My Ride: Is German
Don't know which ones which slump and rise, but this guy thinks they will all do bad.....



In the very unlikely event that the United States defaults on its debt obligations, the country's economy would contract by 5 percent and stocks would fall by nearly a third, according to Credit Suisse.

While Andrew Garthwaite and the global strategy team at the Swiss bank see a 50-50 chance of a ratings downgrade of U.S. debt by the major ratings agencies, they remain confident such an outcome would not lead to disaster.

"We think there is a 50 percent chance of a ratings downgrade on U.S. sovereign debt.

This could happen even if the debt ceiling is raised," Garthwaite, the head of global strategy at Credit Suiss
e, said in research note.

If no budget deal is struck, but the U.S. does not default, Garthwaite predicts a bad time for stocks and the economy.

"As our economists point out, each month of no rise in the ceiling could easily take 0.5-1 percent off GDP.

In this case, equity markets would drop by 10-15 percent, prompting Congress to find a solution, and bond yields would fall to 2.75 percent." If that proved to be the case, investors would in Garthwaite's opinion need to get into defensive stocks and out of the dollar.

However, the worst case scenario is clearly an outright U.S. default. That is where things could get nasty, according to the Credit Suisse team.

"This is very unlikely, but if it occurs, GDP could fall 5 percent plus, and equities by 30 percent," Garthwaite said.

In the event of such a disastrous outcome, Garthwaite predicts the only place to hide would be in cash-rich stocks.

"Worries about the U.S. public finances will likely bring investors to focus on ultra-safe equities: companies with [credit default swap] spreads below that of G7 sovereigns, yet offering dividend yields above government bond yields: Centrica (London Stock Exchange: CNA-LN), Sanofi, Novartis (NYSE:NVS - News), Compass (London Stock Exchange: CPG-LN), Pfizer (NYSEFE - News), Philip Morris (NYSEM - News), Merck (NYSE:MRK - News)." With fiscal tightening in the cards no matter what the outcome of talks in Washington, Garthwaite is worried about the effect on growth, but not that worried.

"Our main concern is that, on IMF estimates, fiscal tightening in the U.S. will be equivalent to nearly 2.5 percent of GDP next year." Garthwaite's economics team predicts that most of that tightening estimated by the International Monetary Fund will not actually take place, and predicts only half a percent of GDP growth being lost as result.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/If-US-...&asset=&ccode=

Last edited by Raymond42262; 07-28-2011 at 10:14 AM.
Raymond42262 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-04-2011, 11:43 PM   #4
ImPulSe
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: NYC & Long Island
Posts: 751
My Ride: Bentley GT
Quote:
Originally Posted by ImPulSe View Post
We all know its gonna happen

Shorting ftw
ImPulSe is online now   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Censor is ON





All times are GMT -5. The time now is 07:36 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
(c) 1999 - 2011 performanceIX Inc - privacy policy - terms of use