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Old 01-29-2013, 01:38 PM   #141
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http://dailycaller.com/2013/01/29/no...rming-urgency/

"It's one in a substantial number of papers appearing in scientific literature within the last year or two, reducing the forecast global warming for the 21st century," Patrick Michaels, director of the Center for the Study of Science at the Cato Institute, told The Daily Caller News Foundation in an interview.



This article also echoes the first one saying that this still needs to be peer reviewed and it doesn't mean that everything is super cool fine. Still, I believe that this casts a doubt on the initial IPCC blitz that they had it all figured out and you cannot question it...which is my main problem with it.
What about the study funded by the Koch brothers?

Climate study, funded in part by conservative group, confirms global warming
"The rather irrational doubt and claims of a hoax simply don't make sense, and this work might help restart the discussion about what is next," Dr. Ammann says.
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Old 01-29-2013, 01:50 PM   #142
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"It's appropriate to jump off a ship when it begins to take on water," Michaels said, "If you look at the monthly temperature anomalies from the University of East Anglia you see no significant trend in any direction going back to the fall of 1996 which would put us at 17 years of no trend."
There are over 50 years of documented evidence showing an increase in ocean temperatures in addition to the overall sea level. As water is heated it expands, thus the increase in sea level. Oceans have the ability to absorb considerable amounts of heat. In the context of this discussion that equates to greenhouse gases. This ability to absorb heat helps to mask the short-term increases in surface temperature.

However, as ocean temperatures rise their ability to absorb additional heat diminishes. And what then happens an increase in surface temperatures will follow.



I'm not impressed.
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Old 01-29-2013, 04:16 PM   #143
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I find that anyone can get you 0.05. It's when you get below 0.01 that you start to see the ladies getting wet.
.05 is hardly used in most real applications. About the only place I know of that still follows the .05 rule to the t is in pharmacy. There are specific guidelines for p-values given the number of observations you have. For my research, we're using values in the .0001 range.

But, I'm glad we all agree here on global warming occurring. Temperature is changing. The time scale we must look at is in the millions. Whether it's man-made or not, that's something else. We do know that CO2 does have an effect in trapping heat. For example, the reason why Venus is the hottest planet in the solar system is because its surface consists of about 97% CO2. Mercury, the closest planet to the sun, is cooler than Venus.
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Old 01-29-2013, 04:22 PM   #144
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.05 is hardly used in most real applications. About the only place I know of that still follows the .05 rule to the t is in pharmacy. There are specific guidelines for p-values given the number of observations you have. For my research, we're using values in the .0001 range.

But, I'm glad we all agree here on global warming occurring. Temperature is changing. The time scale we must look at is in the millions. Whether it's man-made or not, that's something else. We do know that CO2 does have an effect in trapping heat. For example, the reason why Venus is the hottest planet in the solar system is because its surface consists of about 97% CO2. Mercury, the closest planet to the sun, is cooler than Venus.
You'll see an alpha set to 0.05 in psychology depending on the research.
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Old 01-29-2013, 05:30 PM   #145
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On a related note:

"Author of climate change report: 'I got it wrong on climate change - it's far, far worse'"
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Old 01-29-2013, 07:07 PM   #146
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:highfive:

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Originally Posted by Zell View Post
.05 is hardly used in most real applications. About the only place I know of that still follows the .05 rule to the t is in pharmacy. There are specific guidelines for p-values given the number of observations you have. For my research, we're using values in the .0001 range.

But, I'm glad we all agree here on global warming occurring. Temperature is changing. The time scale we must look at is in the millions. Whether it's man-made or not, that's something else. We do know that CO2 does have an effect in trapping heat. For example, the reason why Venus is the hottest planet in the solar system is because its surface consists of about 97% CO2. Mercury, the closest planet to the sun, is cooler than Venus.
What's your research? If I'm doing a quick study to quickly compare data I'll use an alpha of 0.05 for t-tests and f-tests.
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Old 01-29-2013, 07:29 PM   #147
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:highfive:



What's your research? If I'm doing a quick study to quickly compare data I'll use an alpha of 0.05 for t-tests and f-tests.
Genetics. High-p, low-n problem. Need to weed out useful genes from non-useful genes since a lot of them are going to have a p of .05 and 5% is high of a chance due to the high number of predictors.
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Old 04-27-2013, 07:16 AM   #148
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Hey guys, remember global warming?

http://dailycaller.com/2013/04/26/cl...lobal-warming/
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Despite the heated rhetoric from the Obama administration and environmental groups about the urgency of global warming, climate scientists have begun to come to terms with the lack of evidence of catastrophic global warming over the last decade.

"While some climate scientists continue to resist the obvious that the climate system is more complex than they assumed, others are starting to accept that the multi-decadal climate projections provide very incomplete simulations has to how the real climate system works," Roger Pielke, Jr., environmental studies professor at the Center for Science and Technology Policy Research at the University of Colorado at Boulder, told The Daily Caller News Foundation.

Establishment media outlets have been reporting about the unexpected stabilizing global surface temperatures over at least the last decade, and even former NASA scientist and environmental activist James Hansen has recognized the decade-long lull.

This has frustrated some environmentalists who recently sent a letter to major news networks urging them to have more coverage on global warming, and to stop portraying the issue as a "two-sided debate" by featuring global warming skeptics.

"The divergence of the real world observations from the multi-decadal climate predictions, both in terms of forecasting the magnitude of global warming and of changes in regional climate, is finally initiating a much overdue scientific debate on the level of our knowledge of the climate system," Pielke added. "While there is no doubt that humans are altering the climate system, it is in a diverse variety of ways besides that caused by adding greenhouse gases such as C02."

Pielke said that climate scientists are beginning to recognize that the natural climate forces and feedbacks play a larger role than previously thought.

"This is a highly complex calculation to make in the first place. The short period of time, only 10 years in which the increasing temperature has leveled, really doesn't tell us very much other than the fact that temperatures may still be rising but just not as fast as they were before," said Elgie Holstein, the senior director for strategic planning at the Environmental Defense Fund, told Fox News.

"The mainstream media cannot maintain the official man-made global warming narrative any longer," Marc Morano of the climate skeptic website ClimateDepot.com told TheDC News Foundation. "With the lack of warming and the failure to shift the climate debate to 'extreme weather,' warmists are now losing once stalwart members of the media in promoting man-made climate fears."

A study by Norwegian researchers from earlier this year found that global warming is less severe than was predicted by the United Nations climate authority. In fact, studies have been lowering their warming forecasts since the 2007 UN estimate.

In a Washington Times op-ed, Cato Institute climate scholar Patrick Michaels provides a partial list of studies that have made estimates lower than the UN:

"Richard Lindzen gives a range of 0.6 to 1.0 C (Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2011); Andreas Schmittner, 1.4 to 2.8 C (Science, 2011); James Annan, using two techniques, 1.2 to 3.6 C and 1.3 to 4.2 C (Climatic Change, 2011); J.H. van Hateren, 1.5 to 2.5 C (Climate Dynamics, 2012); Michael Ring, 1.5 to 2.0 C (Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, 2012); and Julia Hargreaves, including cooling from dust, 0.2 to 4.0 C and 0.8 to 3.6 C (Geophysical Research Letters, 2012)."

"It's appropriate to jump off a ship when it begins to take on water," Michaels said. "If you look at the monthly temperature anomalies from the University of East Anglia you see no significant trend in any direction going back to the fall of 1996 which would put us at 17 years of no trend."

"These are not good times for the promoters of global warming," said Morano. "Earth is failing to follow global warming predictions and the new study claiming current temperatures are the 'hottest ever' may be facing a full scientific retraction. The great warmist retreat has officially begun."

However, environmental groups were encouraged earlier this year when President Obama promised to address global warming during his second term, threatening executive action if Congress failed to pass legislation on the issue.

"We can choose to believe that Superstorm Sandy, and the most severe drought in decades, and the worst wildfires some states have ever seen were all just a freak coincidence," Obama said in his State of the Union Address. "Or we can choose to believe in the overwhelming judgment of science - and act before it's too late."

Green groups may have a reason to be optimistic as a Gallup poll from March found that 58 percent of Americans say they worry a great deal or fair amount about global warming, up from 51 percent in 2011.
This is awesome. When the initial IPCC report hit the plan of action was "we have to move now, pass legislation now, do everything now before its too late!". As I predicted, these assbags wanted to move "now" because they knew eventually things wouldn't be so pretty for them.

Now, are we causing the earth to warm? Maybe. Do we know for sure? Nope. Do we know how our climate system works? Apparently not as much as we thought. The fact that the models were d.e.a.d. wrong when this 2007 super push for action NOW started only shows that everyone needs to calm the eff down.
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Old 04-27-2013, 07:24 AM   #149
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We'll truly understand our climates when we can control them.
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If there is one thing I despise most it's blacks always pulling the race card. It's so annoying and is often misplaced.
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Old 04-27-2013, 08:32 AM   #150
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We'll truly understand our climates when we can control them.
The important thing to take away from this, is that they were wrong. The 2007 IPCC report that claimed the sky was falling was wrong. wrong wrong wrong.
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Old 04-27-2013, 08:38 AM   #151
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The important thing to take away from this, is that they were wrong. The 2007 IPCC report that claimed the sky was falling was wrong. wrong wrong wrong.
Did none of your fancy credentials teach you anything about confirmation bias? Seeking out only news that confirms what you already believe?

I'm not claiming that your article posted is wrong, but there are studies that come out about global warming constantly that "prove" it to be occurring/not occurring.
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Old 04-27-2013, 08:51 AM   #152
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Did none of your fancy credentials teach you anything about confirmation bias? Seeking out only news that confirms what you already believe?

I'm not claiming that your article posted is wrong, but there are studies that come out about global warming constantly that "prove" it to be occurring/not occurring.
This is how it works:

They said X would happen
X did not happen
Therefore, they were wrong

This should have been suspect the second they tried to stifle any discussion or debate on the subject. "The debate is over", remember that? What they said would happen when that quote was made, didn't happen. They said they have the answers, we know the science, we did the numbers, anyone who disagrees is paid off. Remember all this?
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“They have the guns and therefore we are for peace and for reformation through the ballot. When we have the guns then it will be through the bullet.” - Saul Alinsky, quoting Lenin

"You don’t burn books because they’re irrelevant. You burn books because you’re terrified that they’re not. You don’t muzzle people who have no audience. You muzzle people only when their voices are amplified far beyond your liking."

Last edited by Act of God; 04-27-2013 at 08:52 AM.
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Old 04-27-2013, 11:02 AM   #153
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This is how it works:

They said X would happen
X did not happen
Therefore, they were wrong

This should have been suspect the second they tried to stifle any discussion or debate on the subject. "The debate is over", remember that? What they said would happen when that quote was made, didn't happen. They said they have the answers, we know the science, we did the numbers, anyone who disagrees is paid off. Remember all this?
You are a master at addressing points that weren't brought up.
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Old 04-27-2013, 11:19 AM   #154
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Did none of your fancy credentials teach you anything about confirmation bias? Seeking out only news that confirms what you already believe?

I'm not claiming that your article posted is wrong, but there are studies that come out about global warming constantly that "prove" it to be occurring/not occurring.
you're kidding right?
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Old 04-27-2013, 11:22 AM   #155
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you're kidding right?
I'm undecided on global warming, so I'm not sure of the point you're making in this thread. As far as other topics, everyone exhibits some confirmation bias, me included, you included. I try to be objective about my approaches with this kind of stuff.
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Old 04-27-2013, 02:36 PM   #156
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Rename this thread to "Occasional links to biased sources that confirm my opinion of global warming, based on politics, not science"
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Old 04-27-2013, 02:37 PM   #157
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gotta love the typical politalk crowd
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Old 04-27-2013, 02:55 PM   #158
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We'll truly understand our climates when we can control them.
HARRP.....it's the first step............



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HAARP
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Old 04-28-2013, 12:29 AM   #159
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Rename this thread to "Occasional links to biased sources that confirm my opinion of global warming, based on politics, not science"
and yet again have no idea what you are talking about. Is 2013 the hottest year ever? If not, IPCC was wrong.
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Old 04-28-2013, 02:47 AM   #160
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Is 2013 the hottest year ever? If not, IPCC was wrong.
It is obvious you have never read IPCC AR4. Perhaps if you had, you would realize that no where does it state that 2013 must be the hottest year ever. In fact, 2013 isn't even mentioned. But, why let pesky things like facts spoil your fun.

Of course you could even check that fact for yourself.
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_.../contents.html
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