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Old 04-27-2017, 01:31 PM   #61
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http://www.breitbart.com/video/2017/...nce-political/

And if you can't connect the dots and see the obvious political agenda in that sex junk segment then you're blind.


You people make me laugh yes, let's use the most widely known radically biased website as a basis for argument. Blind yourselves with information that supports your own ideas, example A idiots for the win! ROTFFL!

I guess I needed a minute, back on topic terrific show!


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Old 04-27-2017, 02:07 PM   #62
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http://<b>www.breitbart.com</b>/vide...nce-political/

And if you can't connect the dots and see the obvious political agenda in that sex junk segment then you're blind.
Fvcking lol, Breitbart

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Old 04-27-2017, 02:07 PM   #63
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Let's not forget on the pilot episode Mr. Nye outright said something about we're stupid for electing science-denying politicians.
We are.
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Old 04-27-2017, 02:15 PM   #64
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Old 04-27-2017, 04:03 PM   #65
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Old 04-30-2017, 10:18 AM   #66
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what a hack

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Old 04-30-2017, 10:42 AM   #67
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Bill Nye the Science Guy

Some scientists think that because they can observe the present/past they can also predict the future.

It doesn't work that way.


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Old 04-30-2017, 01:15 PM   #68
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Some scientists think that because they can observe the present/past they can also predict the future.

It doesn't work that way.


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Except it does, and alllll of the mathematics is there. Most people shy away from it because they think it's too hard. Forecasting and predictive modeling are monumentally important to modern algorithms.

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Old 04-30-2017, 01:18 PM   #69
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Old 04-30-2017, 02:14 PM   #70
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Some scientists think that because they can observe the present/past they can also predict the future.

It doesn't work that way.


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It does work that way. It is the foundation of science to make predictions. This is how our understanding of all natural phenomena is tested.

I know what you are saying though, that things happening in the past do not guarantee the same things happening in the future.

The nuance is in whether the words "observe" and "predict" are being used in the scientific sense or the casual sense.
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Old 04-30-2017, 03:30 PM   #71
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It does work that way. It is the foundation of science to make predictions. This is how our understanding of all natural phenomena is tested.

I know what you are saying though, that things happening in the past do not guarantee the same things happening in the future.

The nuance is in whether the words "observe" and "predict" are being used in the scientific sense or the casual sense.
No one can perfectly guarantee what's going to happen tomorrow, but you can give someone the likelihood of events with your prediction error. That's equally as valuable. Even the sun rising tomorrow is not a guarantee, but you're going to be 99.9999999999999% right if you claim that it will....as long as you're not in Alaska.

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Old 04-30-2017, 03:50 PM   #72
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Bill Nye the Science Guy

(Lol. Wrong thread. )



I seriously did not make this up. This was the first item returned when I searched for "Do Statistics predict the future?".

"Nate Silver is a statistician and forecaster who made his name predicting the performance of baseball players. He now produces the FiveThirtyEight blog, known for its dead-on accurate predictions in political contests."


!!!!!!!!!!! AND WE ALL KNOW HOW ACCURATE 538 WAS !!!!!!!!

x's 1,000,000

http://money.usnews.com/money/blogs/...ict-the-future


Omg. Ok. I've stopped laughing enough to admit that, yes, Bollinger Bands do predict a likely outcomes for stocks but they don't tell you the direction.


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Old 04-30-2017, 03:56 PM   #73
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(Lol. Wrong thread. )



I seriously did not make this up. This was the first item returned when I searched for "Do Statistics predict the future?".

"Nate Silver is a statistician and forecaster who made his name predicting the performance of baseball players. He now produces the FiveThirtyEight blog, known for its dead-on accurate predictions in political contests."


!!!!!!!!!!! AND WE ALL KNOW HOW ACCURATE 538 WAS !!!!!!!!

x's 1,000,000

http://money.usnews.com/money/blogs/...ict-the-future


Omg. Ok. I've stopped laughing enough to admit that, yes, Bollinger Bands do predict a likely outcomes for stocks but they don't tell you the direction.


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Is it really surprising to you that statistical forecasts can be wrong? We deal with this one all the time.

"Hah! See! You were wrong this time! Your model is no good!"

They have to actively seek the one time it was very wrong, sifting through the 95%+ other times it was right.

Humans can only think of a few instances. Statistics looks at every single instance. On average, a statistical forecast will far, far outperform anything guessed by a person.

For every one time a statistical model is wrong, a human is wrong orders of magnitude more. If you actually think statistics don't help us predict the future, you're unaware of how the world works behind the scenes.


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Old 04-30-2017, 04:09 PM   #74
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Is it really surprising to you that statistical forecasts can be wrong? We deal with this one all the time.

"Hah! See! You were wrong this time! Your model is no good!"

They have to actively seek the one time it was very wrong, sifting through the 95%+ other times it was right.

Humans can only think of a few instances. Statistics looks at every single instance. On average, a statistical forecast will far, far outperform anything guessed by a person.

For every one time a statistical model is wrong, a human is wrong orders of magnitude more. If you actually think statistics don't help us predict the future, you're unaware of how the world works behind the scenes.


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I don't care if 538 was wrong about the 4th congressional district in Tennessee.

I care that they were wrong about the Presidential race.

Either way, trying to predict human behavior is difficult. That's what makes us human and not machines.
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Old 04-30-2017, 04:32 PM   #75
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I care that they were wrong about the Presidential race.

Either way, trying to predict human behavior is difficult. That's what makes us human and not machines.
You're focusing on that one prediction that used the same methods for all his others that he did well with, which is a majority of them. It was wrong this time.

Something that's right a majority of the time doesn't mean it can't be wrong some of the time.

You are correct, it is difficult to predict human behavior. That's why you build machines to try to predict humans. Surprisingly, humans tend to be very consistent in how they behave. If you are referring to the difficulty in predicting the stock market, that is a very special and unique case of forecasting that has a monstrous number of inputs causing change. It is arguably the most difficult thing to predict, and people spend hundreds of millions, if not billions, each year trying to get incrementally better at it.

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Old 04-30-2017, 04:38 PM   #76
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Yeah swordsman, your commentary on statistics is basically like a kindergartner commenting on calculus. You're in over your head. You probably struggle to calculate tips at restaurants in your head. You don't even understand the most basic foundations of statistics and what numbers mean and how we obtain them. You've demonstrated this with your "since this study didn't work perfectly, that means it's all wrong."
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Old 04-30-2017, 05:08 PM   #77
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Fine. Go to Wall Street with your stats, predict the price of AAPL and become a billionaire.

Odds are you'll end up broke. I know that much.


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Old 04-30-2017, 05:11 PM   #78
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That's what makes us human and not machines.
Nah that's art, and laughing at farts. No one can predict how a CNN will behave or what features it chooses for a given data set.
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Old 04-30-2017, 05:26 PM   #79
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You're focusing on that one prediction that used the same methods for all his others that he did well with, which is a majority of them. It was wrong this time.

It?

Out of curiosity what was wrong: the data or the model?
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Old 04-30-2017, 05:33 PM   #80
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Fine. Go to Wall Street with your stats, predict the price of AAPL and become a billionaire.

Odds are you'll end up broke. I know that much.


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Except that's also not how it works. You don't seem to know that much at all.

I was looking into working on algo desks, the majority of all market trades. Guess what those companies are using to make billions? Statistics, comp sci, and IT, all those things that you claim make people broke.

You sound like you did a 4-hour course on technical analysis one time, which is making your post a 7/10 troll. In that case, I salute you.

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