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Old 04-30-2017, 05:56 PM   #81
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Except that's also not how it works. You don't seem to know that much at all.

I was looking into working on algo desks, the majority of all market trades. Guess what those companies are using to make billions? Statistics, comp sci, and IT, all those things that you claim make people broke.

You sound like you did a 4-hour course on technical analysis one time, which is making your post a 7/10 troll. In that case, I salute you.

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My point is Stats alone can't (right now) make the predictions you claim.

Your post admits that even the Wall Streeters use a lot more stuff than is available to the average person.

Great. They CAN make predictions and make money. I can't even if I have Stats.

So what do I do? I have to listen to them and pay them to manage my money. And hope they have my best interest in mind.

Did 538 have my best interest in mind? I don't know. Did 538 use IT and comp sci in addition to Stats? I have no idea.

So in the end those with the best data and the best model will make the best predictions.

I just have to decide if I believe them or not - because even scientists have agendas and biases. And sometimes they get it wrong.

Case in point: NASA got it wrong.




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Old 04-30-2017, 06:46 PM   #82
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My point is Stats alone can't (right now) make the predictions you claim.

Your post admits that even the Wall Streeters use a lot more stuff than is available to the average person.

Great. They CAN make predictions and make money. I can't even if I have Stats.
...but that's what they're using: Statistical models being put into highly optimized programs that trade millions of times a day on a very fast infrastructure.

And yes you can do that. In fact, it's completely, 100% free. You can go build your own model right now using R, Python, and Quandl. Sure, you won't be trading millions of times per day, but you'll be able to perform portfolio optimization, basic predictive modeling for puts and calls, and other strategies that can get you some extra money.

Apparently my personal statistical stock models are just a massive anomaly. The models I've made and maintain for my customers shouldn't be working either. Someone call some scientists, none of this should be working.

...and yes, 538 used comp sci and IT. How do you think their website works?

You keep pulling single articles about single events. You're not getting how it works, which is perfectly fine because it's a complex subject, but the fact that you are positive that you know how it works given that you don't know how it works is the problem here. Statistics doesn't work on 1-2 events. Statistics works on thousands, hundreds of thousands, millions of events. That's why it's so effective.

I'm not going to give you a full-on course about statistics. If you really care to know, you can find lots of free courses on Coursera.

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Old 04-30-2017, 07:23 PM   #83
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Thanks.


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Old 04-30-2017, 08:08 PM   #84
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Fine. Go to Wall Street with your stats, predict the price of AAPL and become a billionaire.

Odds are you'll end up broke. I know that much.


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That's not how any of this works.

You think since it's supposed to be some crystal ball into the future. That's not how statistics manifests it's predictions.

You have a jar with 90% blue marbles and 10% red marbles. I would say with a high level of confidence that you'd pull a blue marble out at any time. But I could pull several red in a row at some points. It's unlikely, but it can happen. You'd say that's evidence of statistics being wrong. I'd say, pull 1000 and we'll talk.


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Old 04-30-2017, 08:11 PM   #85
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Old 04-30-2017, 09:07 PM   #86
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Modern Medicine GOOD!

Climate Science BAAAD!

Statistics BAAAD!

Anyways, I watched the first episode of Bill Nye's new show. I thought it was awesome!

I like how predicting the presidential race or the stock market is being equated with climate science.

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Old 04-30-2017, 09:15 PM   #87
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That's not how any of this works.

You think since it's supposed to be some crystal ball into the future. That's not how statistics manifests it's predictions.

You have a jar with 90% blue marbles and 10% red marbles. I would say with a high level of confidence that you'd pull a blue marble out at any time. But I could pull several red in a row at some points. It's unlikely, but it can happen. You'd say that's evidence of statistics being wrong. I'd say, pull 1000 and we'll talk.


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I know it's not a crystal ball that shows the future. But that's how Stats are portrayed in the media.

That's my point.

Even if you can say with 95% confidence something will happen there's always a chance it won't.

Climate science is incredibly complex. Red or Blue marbles is merely a binary outcome.

It's like the Matrix: way too much information to encode.
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Old 04-30-2017, 09:32 PM   #88
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I know it's not a crystal ball that shows the future. But that's how Stats are portrayed in the media.

That's my point.

Even if you can say with 95% confidence something will happen there's always a chance it won't.

Climate science is incredibly complex. Red or Blue marbles is merely a binary outcome.

It's like the Matrix: way too much information to encode.


But in the end the mechanism for global warming is quite simple to understand.


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Old 04-30-2017, 09:40 PM   #89
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I know it's not a crystal ball that shows the future. But that's how Stats are portrayed in the media.

That's my point.

Even if you can say with 95% confidence something will happen there's always a chance it won't.

Climate science is incredibly complex. Red or Blue marbles is merely a binary outcome.

It's like the Matrix: way too much information to encode.
That's entirely a problem with the media.

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Old 04-30-2017, 10:04 PM   #90
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This thread piqued my interest in the new show, and I'm about 15 minutes in. I enjoyed watching Bill Nye as a kid (and Beakman, and Mr. Wizard), but this is insipid. It's not a science show. It's an advocacy show where the persuasive hook is science, i.e. "studies show." The interview segment might as well be from a proactiv infomercial. As a scientist, I'm disgusted and turning it off. It's An Inconvenient Truth redux.
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Old 04-30-2017, 10:16 PM   #91
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This thread piqued my interest in the new show, and I'm about 15 minutes in. I enjoyed watching Bill Nye as a kid (and Beakman, and Mr. Wizard), but this is insipid. It's not a science show. It's an advocacy show where the persuasive hook is science, i.e. "studies show." The interview segment might as well be from a proactiv infomercial. As a scientist, I'm disgusted and turning it off. It's An Inconvenient Truth redux.
Gtfo we are talking about other bullshit

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Old 04-30-2017, 10:18 PM   #92
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Gtfo we are talking about other bullshit

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For real.
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Old 05-01-2017, 11:10 AM   #93
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Every time someone tries contradicting science, all I hear is "I don't really know anything about this topic, but I think you're wrong". Apparently statistics are mightier than the sword... lol

The show is not exploring new science, it's presenting factual science for everyone. If you disagree, maybe you should go to school.


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Old 05-01-2017, 11:13 AM   #94
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You mean like a non scientist pretending to be a scientist with facts obtained from non scientists?


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Old 05-01-2017, 11:23 AM   #95
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You mean like a non scientist pretending to be a scientist with facts obtained from non scientists?


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Which facts were obtained from "nonscientists"?


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Old 05-01-2017, 11:38 AM   #96
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But in the end the mechanism for global warming is quite simple to understand.


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Oversimplification to the max!

Just because I understand the mechanism of trading on Wall Street does not mean I can predict the daily/weekly/yearly fluctuations in a given stock price.

Weather and climate are more complex than the stock market! There are many mechanisms that affect it. Man-made CO2 is just one of them. And some are entirely out of human control.
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Old 05-01-2017, 11:41 AM   #97
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Oversimplification to the max!

Just because I understand the mechanism of trading on Wall Street does not mean I can predict the daily/weekly/yearly fluctuations in a given stock price.
You literally just said "Just because I can understand how it works doesn't mean I can tell you how it might work in the future."

We made weekly temperature models in grad school as an intro to forecasting project. I hardly had any idea what I was doing and we still nailed like 90% average accuracy. **** wasn't that difficult, because temperature is ridiculously cyclical and seasonal. That was just doing small weekly models.

Also see: Box-Jenkins.

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Old 05-01-2017, 11:52 AM   #98
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Oversimplification to the max!

Just because I understand the mechanism of trading on Wall Street does not mean I can predict the daily/weekly/yearly fluctuations in a given stock price.

Weather and climate are more complex than the stock market! There are many mechanisms that affect it. Man-made CO2 is just one of them. And some are entirely out of human control.
Not really. It's pretty easy to understand that if the oceans get warmer, the water expands. Fact. Easy to understand. It's also easy to understand that CO2 makes our atmosphere trap more heat. Fact. Easy to understand. It's also easy to understand that humans are releasing extra CO2 into the atmosphere that the ecosystem is not balanced or prepared for. That means it's easy to understand how the environment is not readily able to deal with the CO2 that we release. CO2 in water creates carbonic acid. Fact. Easy to understand. That means that if CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere go up, then dissolved concentrations in water go up. That means the acidity of bodies of water can be affected.

Easy. Simple.
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Old 05-01-2017, 11:57 AM   #99
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You literally just said "Just because I can understand how it works doesn't mean I can tell you how it might work in the future."

We made weekly temperature models in grad school as an intro to forecasting project. I hardly had any idea what I was doing and we still nailed like 90% average accuracy. **** wasn't that difficult, because temperature is ridiculously cyclical and seasonal. That was just doing small weekly models.

Also see: Box-Jenkins.

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I guess I wasn't clear enough: just because I understand how to buy/sell shares (i.e. The Mechanism of Trading) does not mean I can make billions.

Nor can you or WDE.

Nor can a scientist tell me which way the wind will blow in 5 minutes at my house or what the exact max temp will be in 100 years from now.

*Past performance does not guarantee future results. Right?

All ya'll scientists focus solely on the data and the formulas but leave out the Achille's Heel: human error. No matter how good your data there will always be error. But, again, the media never disclose conflicts of interest or caveats.

Click bait titles are the norm.
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Old 05-01-2017, 12:10 PM   #100
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I guess I wasn't clear enough: just because I understand how to buy/sell shares (i.e. The Mechanism of Trading) does not mean I can make billions.

Nor can you or WDE.

Nor can a scientist tell me which way the wind will blow in 5 minutes at my house or what the exact max temp will be in 100 years from now.

*Past performance does not guarantee future results. Right?

All ya'll scientists focus solely on the data and the formulas but leave out the Achille's Heel: human error. No matter how good your data there will always be error. But, again, the media never disclose conflicts of interest or caveats.

Click bait titles are the norm.
We don't have to know the exact max temp in 100 years. Nobody knows the exact temp. Nobody claims anything is exact. Be careful with scientific language and how the media twists it. All predictions use language like "at least" or "between" or "almost" or "on the magnitude of". The media, and you too, don't know how to interpret these things as anything but "EXACTLY THIS". All you need to do is understand the concepts I presented and from that conclude:

1. Humans are warming the earth by burning hydrocarbons for energy.
2. We should start doing something about it now (curbing use of hydrocarbons for energy)

Y'all scientific illiterates just dismiss things that confuse you. You've demonstrated you don't care to understand these things even at a superficial level. Anything that requires the slightest brain power gets dismissed by you because it may go against your ingrained beliefs. Heaven forbid if your lifestyle had to change a bit to accommodate the above points.

Don't talk to us about error. EVERYTHING has error. Not a single thing a person has ever done or will do is error free.
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