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Old 01-19-2012, 02:41 PM   #1081
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Closed out my SODA position today at 39.75. Tired of playing with that one and wanted to free up some cash for other trades that look to be setting up right now. Still have AAPL, CAT, GE, QQQ, and SPY positions.
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Old 01-21-2012, 08:17 PM   #1082
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Looks like gap and go monday. Start selling into this strength. I'm positioning for a small correction next week.
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Old 01-22-2012, 01:26 AM   #1083
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Omx. Bought at $4.80
Igt. Bought at $16.90
Aapl. Bought at $352

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Old 01-22-2012, 01:30 AM   #1084
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lucky if you can resell pennystocks........GL man.........stay away from those.
It's a hit and miss really. Markets r so fd up its too risky.
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Old 01-22-2012, 08:02 PM   #1085
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Im considering it luck... sold ENER at 1.26. Worked out well. While I had it, the stock jumped up and down constantly.

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Old 01-23-2012, 04:32 PM   #1086
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Check out CROX again. Was up strong yesterday on strong volume, a little pull back today and maybe tomorrow and then I think it continues up.
That is a good idea.
I looked at the annual chart and for the last 5 years or so, it has begun to rise in March / April and reach its peak about August and then drop. It appears to happen almost on schedule, like the swallows returning to Capistrano.
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Old 01-24-2012, 05:49 PM   #1087
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To sell aapl, or to hold... that is the question...
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Old 01-25-2012, 12:45 PM   #1088
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To sell aapl, or to hold... that is the question...
hopefully you held.
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Old 01-25-2012, 12:50 PM   #1089
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Only because my sell orders in the 460's didn't fill. AH trading can suck trying to get a fill

Today I re-evaluated levels, moved my stop and target up and I'll wait a while again unless my stop or limit hits.

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Old 01-25-2012, 02:10 PM   #1090
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Only because my sell orders in the 460's didn't fill. AH trading can suck trying to get a fill

Today I re-evaluated levels, moved my stop and target up and I'll wait a while again unless my stop or limit hits.
I'm going to hold apple for a while, It's not a quick trade imo, It will reach $500 at some point.
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Old 01-25-2012, 02:17 PM   #1091
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I don't think apple is worth 460 right now. Not to the big boys. It's cash is hurting it's multiple because it can't grow as fast as the company itself grows.
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Old 01-25-2012, 03:54 PM   #1092
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I'm going to hold apple for a while, It's not a quick trade imo, It will reach $500 at some point.
I don't "hold" stocks in my trading account. Trades happen in my trading account, holds happen in investing accounts. I refuse to mix the two after seeing/reading about too many people who turned "trades" into "holds" with negative results. The closest I do to "holding" something in my account is moving stops to let it run in my favor.
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Old 01-25-2012, 10:05 PM   #1093
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Old 01-26-2012, 12:02 AM   #1094
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Anyone have opinions on ARCO for a hold?
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Old 01-26-2012, 11:50 AM   #1095
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Old 01-26-2012, 04:47 PM   #1096
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Closed out my SODA position today at 39.75. Tired of playing with that one and wanted to free up some cash for other trades that look to be setting up right now. Still have AAPL, CAT, GE, QQQ, and SPY positions.
Closed out of CAT today at 112.29.
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Old 01-27-2012, 12:58 AM   #1097
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Wowie...who got on the NETFLIX boat? Man, I missed that one.
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Old 01-27-2012, 09:24 AM   #1098
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Wowie...who got on the NETFLIX boat? Man, I missed that one.
I sold my NFLX a few weeks ago at $98, It was a crap shoot on what their earnings were going to be imo.
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Old 01-30-2012, 12:41 AM   #1099
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I sold my NFLX a few weeks ago at $98, It was a crap shoot on what their earnings were going to be imo.
If NFLX has the same success with their streaming only service in Europe as they did in Canada we can expect to see it at $300 again. I'm waiting for a bit of a pullback now...

I think they should split though, their stock price is very deceiving seeing as their market cap @ $120 is only like $6B...must make a pretty temping takeover option for Google
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Old 01-31-2012, 09:00 AM   #1100
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I don't believe in greed, only fear. Fear of losing or fear of not having enough. This fear is the driving force when we sell winners too early and ride losers too long. Through my years of trading, I've had the opportunity to speak with some very successful traders. I have found that even while their trading styles and asset classes of choice differ, they all tend to share a few common attributes which separate them from less successful traders. I believe these attributes contribute to a significant portion of their profitability. The one attribute I believe is most crucial to trading success is that every winning trade that I know habitually takes losses quickly before they become outsized. For the successful bit of my career, I've employed a similar rationale. When I first began trading I started a trading journal where I would note size, bias, price, P/L, and general notes on the outcome of the position. When I look back on my first few months of notes, I notice a common theme: small profits and large losses. This realization led me to pursue a better understanding of why this was happening and through my research I discovered that this happens to many traders and investors alike. In this essay I'm going to show you a hypothetical situation of this disposition to sell winners and hold losers, construct a framework that explains why this disposition effect occurs, and form a plan to conquer this effect. Either side of the profit/loss coin spurs a set of psychological processes that distort the rational choice.
For the sake of visualization, let's establish a context. Consider an investor who purchased a stock one month ago for $50 and who finds the stock is now selling at $40. The investor must now decide whether to realize the loss or hold the stock for one more period. Let's assume that one of two outcomes will emerge during the coming period: the stock will increase in price by $10 or decrease in price by $10. According to prospect theory developed by Kahneman and Tversky, our investor frames his choice as a choice between the following two outcomes.
A. Sell the stock now and realize what had been a $10 paper loss.
B. Hold the stock for one more period, given 50-50 odds between losing an additional $10 or breaking even.
Prospect Theory suggests the hypothesis that investors display a disposition to sell winners and ride losers when standard theory suggests otherwise. Since the choice between these outcomes is associated with the convex portion of the S-shaped value function, prospect theory implies that B will be selected over A. The investor will ride his losing stock. Given the overwhelming disposition towards B in this function, it follows that the investor would be willing to accept B even if the odds of breaking even were something less than 50-50. Only when the odds became sufficiently unfavorable, then the investor would prefer to realize this loss. As the trade falls further way from the investor, a set of psychological processes occur that distort his rationale.
Instinctually, this investor will begin thinking to himself, "this has to come back" and "if I can just get even." Aaron T. Beck, widely regarded as the father of cognitive therapy, called these mental death throes "automatic thoughts". Later on Hersh Shefrin in his book "Understanding Behavioral Finance and the Psychology of Investing" would manifest this idea in the trading world as "get-evenitis". An investor will rationalize, get emotional, and average down multiple times. It's not a disorder or a phobia, it is loss-aversion. A biological correlate is pain-aversion. If the pain can be postponed or even removed, the untrained mind will always take that route. On the concave portion of our function, loss-aversion translates as exiting the position at the first sign of any weakness. There are five basic components at play here:
Situational - The trader is in a losing trade.
Behavorial - The trader is avoiding loss realization by holding the loser and not selling rationally while the loss is small.
Affective - The trader is experiencing anxiety which increases as the loss increases.
Cognitive - The trader has begun rationalizing the loss with automatic internal statements.
Neuropsychological - The anxiety is accompanied by chemical changes in the central nervous system.
Taken together, these five components form a multidimensional profile for the disposition effect within the domain of losses or "get-evenitis". Most traders will fall into this state. It is the normal reaction and empirically bases evidence suggests that the majority of humans in such a situation will tend to respond similarly.
The Clinical Psychological Correlate to Getevenitis
The getevenitis profile I have outlined above is similar in some ways to certain anxiety disorders which result in behavior avoidance. These include simple phobias as well as agoraphobia. Take for example those who suffer from an intense and irrational fear of bridges. They might have a 5 component profile which looks like this:
Situational - The bridge phobic is faced with the thought or prospect of crossing a bridge.
Behavioral - The bridge phobic avoids bridges similar to the way the trader avoids taking the loss.
Affective - The bridge phobic is experiencing anxiety which increases as the bridge approaches.
Cognitive - The bridge phobic rationalizes the fear with automatic internal statements such as, "that bridge might fall while I am on it and I will be killed" and/or "I remember seeing the bridge in Minnesota fall and this one is probably also faulty."
Neuropsychological - The anxiety is accompanied by chemical changes in the central nervous system.
The treatment might also be similar. Clinical psychologists successfully utilize a treatment for phobics who avoid situations called graded exposure. In graded exposure, the phobic is guided through a series of exercises in which the exposure to the irrationally feared stimulus is gradually increased until the client is able to approach instead of avoid it.
Graded exposure can also be used to hinder the disposition effect. The main objective of this approach is to show that trader that they do not need to be right. The rationale here is to expose the trader to the action of taking losses quickly and to have a more personal connection with the idea of loss. Just like with anything, it's much easier to understand something when you've had first-hand encounters with it. Over time it will train the trader to make the exit automatic. It shows that it is much easier to be wrong than broke. I have created a five-step program that will help all size traders conquer the disposition effect.
Step One: The Visualization Step: Here we only imagine the trade. Imagine the ticker, the number of shares, the price, the bias, and the movement of the stock. Imagine where you would place a hard stop and imagine the stock moving below this and mentally close the position.
Step Two: Tiny Trade, Tiny Loss: Next, pick a stock that you trade and know well and buy a very small increment; 1/10 to 1/20 of your normal size and buy it. Do not concern yourself with the set up or whether this is a good trade or not. Set an extremely tight mental stop of 10 cents below your entry and a profit goal of 25 cents.
Step Three: Repeat Step Two: But increase your trade size by 2x. Make sure that before you move on, you are extremely comfortable with taking the small loss and have so several times.
Step Four: Repeat Step Three: Increase your trade size by 2x. Make sure that before you move on, you are extremely comfortable with taking the small loss and have so several times.
Step Five: Repeat Step One.
The road to cutting your losses quickly is a long, perilous one, but it is essential to the progress of trading ability. As I write this, I'm still struggling with cutting my losses, but every day I notice a sizable change in the manner at which I take my losses and the emotions I feel when a trade goes against me. Intense emotion is completely natural when watching a position dive, but the goal here is to completely cut this emotion out by never letting it take control. Nothing is more detrimental to a trader's account than getevenitis. Use the steps I've highlighted to actively approach and conquer the fear of losing or the fear of not having enough.

***8195;
Kahneman and A. Tversky. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk." Econometrica 47 (March 1979), 263-91
Shefrin and Statman. "Beyond Greed and Fear: Understanding Behavioral Finance and the Psychology of Investing." Boston: Harvard Business School, 2000. Print
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