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Political Talk
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Old 04-02-2013, 10:53 PM   #1
rapier7
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The Next Recession

The last recession ended in Q3 of 2009, about 4 years ago.



From 1940 to 2012, we've averaged a recession every 6 years.

It doesn't feel like we've fully recovered from this one and you have to think that we're not too far from the next. There are so many dark clouds on the horizon (Europe, China's fabled "hard landing", municipal bonds, etc) and we're one crisis of confidence away from the next recession.
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Old 04-03-2013, 02:53 PM   #2
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Always possible, but not necessarily inevitable. Because something happens on average every X years doesn't necessarily mean it will happen, like clockwork, every X years. While there are many ominous things on the horizon -- there always are -- there too are various positive things on the horizon. While the climb out of the Great Bush Recession has been a long arduous slog, as might be expected for any climb out of such a pit, I think the economy is better grounded than the highly speculative housing bubble that propped up much of the Bush years. Another large and growing plus is the emerging energy boom in the U.S. which will increasingly insinuate its benefits throughout our productive economy. Not that things can't go horribly wrong (Republican's recklessly playing hostage/chicken with budgets and the economy with their austerity-focused agenda similar to what's worked so badly for Europe), I think we'll continue a measured but steady period of economic growth for the next few years.
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Old 04-03-2013, 03:03 PM   #3
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I'd be more scared of a "double dip" since we really haven't recovered from this recession
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Old 04-03-2013, 03:34 PM   #4
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I'd be more scared of a "double dip" since we really haven't recovered from this recession
It's called a "double dip recession". The point being is that it's still a recession...

The recession officially ended in the middle of 2009. Although I agree that we haven't fully recovered from it, it's still worth repeating that the US economy is currently not in a recession. Let's say the next recession occurs in 3 years, could you really call it a double dip recession 7 years after the first recession ended?
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Old 04-03-2013, 04:17 PM   #5
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It sure didn't feel like the recession ended four years ago.
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Old 04-03-2013, 04:25 PM   #6
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It sure didn't feel like the recession ended four years ago.
+1
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It's called a "double dip recession". The point being is that it's still a recession...

The recession officially ended in the middle of 2009. Although I agree that we haven't fully recovered from it, it's still worth repeating that the US economy is currently not in a recession. Let's say the next recession occurs in 3 years, could you really call it a double dip recession 7 years after the first recession ended?
I thought if we went into a recession right now it would be considered a double dip, since we still aren't really that far out of this one.
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Old 04-03-2013, 04:39 PM   #7
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+1


I thought if we went into a recession right now it would be considered a double dip, since we still aren't really that far out of this one.
A double dip recession is traditionally defined as a quarter, or two, of negative growth after a few months of positive growth coming out of a recession. A recession now would be an entirely different recession compared to the one from 4 years ago.
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Old 04-03-2013, 04:47 PM   #8
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A double dip recession is traditionally defined as a quarter, or two, of negative growth after a few months of positive growth coming out of a recession. A recession now would be an entirely different recession compared to the one from 4 years ago.
Understandable.

I was just under the impression that it wasn't over 4 years ago. Do you really think we have been on the up and up since 2009? I feel like the stats that determine that kind of stuff could easily be manipulated.
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Old 04-03-2013, 04:51 PM   #9
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Understandable.

I was just under the impression that it wasn't over 4 years ago. Do you really think we have been on the up and up since 2009? I feel like the stats that determine that kind of stuff could easily be manipulated.
Quarterly GDP growth/decline is what determines if we are in a recession or a depression. We have had positive growth since 2009 and it's not something that would be easily manipulated as there are hundreds of sources that confirm the data. It's not as if the POTUS and his staff (or anyone else for that matter) are penning the data of an equation that comes up with GDP.

Also, there are a variety of factors that go into determining our economic environment.....leading and lagging economic indicators. In looking at those a lot of the factors have been on a positive uptick over the past 4 years, as well.
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Old 04-03-2013, 05:22 PM   #10
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I think that if the govt reported the facts accurately we would find that we are in the same recession we entered 5 years ago.

I don't see how we could have left the recession when we have more people on unemployment, more people on food stamps and the national debt has expanded.

More of everything since it started.
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Old 04-03-2013, 05:44 PM   #11
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I think that if the govt reported the facts accurately we would find that we are in the same recession we entered 5 years ago.

I don't see how we could have left the recession when we have more people on unemployment, more people on food stamps and the national debt has expanded.

More of everything since it started.
Again, recessions are dictated by GDP growth and the factors that go into it aren't solely reported by the government. You also seem to just be nitpicking the convenient things. There are plenty of economic indicators that have improved well off of their lows from the end of the recession 4 years ago.
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Old 04-03-2013, 05:48 PM   #12
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Again, recessions are dictated by GDP growth and the factors that go into it aren't solely reported by the government. You also seem to just be nitpicking the convenient things. There are plenty of economic indicators that have improved well off of their lows from the end of the recession 4 years ago.
I'm sorry, Lucas, but a recession is like pornography--I can't define it, but I know it when I see it.


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Old 04-03-2013, 05:50 PM   #13
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I'm sorry, Lucas, but a recession is like pornography--I can't define it, but I know it when I see it.


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Old 04-03-2013, 05:51 PM   #14
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Again, recessions are dictated by GDP growth and the factors that go into it aren't solely reported by the government. You also seem to just be nitpicking the convenient things. There are plenty of economic indicators that have improved well off of their lows from the end of the recession 4 years ago.
I am not nitpicking. Just looking at the obvious.

The GDP can go up because US companies are selling more products manufactured overseas and sold overseas. The stock market can rise to new highs because these same companies have increasing revenues for overseas sales.

But if people are still unemployed etc............the recession is not over.

I understand the definition of a recession . Maybe what we need to do is refine the definition to something a bit more realistic.
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Old 04-03-2013, 06:00 PM   #15
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I am not nitpicking. Just looking at the obvious.

The GDP can go up because US companies are selling more products manufactured overseas and sold overseas. The stock market can rise to new highs because these same companies have increasing revenues for overseas sales as well as increases in their products.

But if people are still unemployed etc............the recession is not over.

I understand the definition of a recession . Maybe what we need to do is refine the definition to something a bit more realistic.
No, you're not looking at the obvious. You're ignoring positive economic indicators and putting more weight on the negative ones. You seem to be wanting to redefine the definition of a widely accepted economic principle because it doesn't fit your viewpoint.

No one is denying that the economy is weak right now, but it's hard to deny that we have experienced some modicum of recovery over the past several years.
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