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Old 06-25-2013, 06:49 PM   #21
NFRs2000nyc
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Originally Posted by Carskibum View Post
Chump, a traitor and a terrorist.

Seems like a lot of people don't understand that the government was building the capability and infrastructure to grab data quickly when a writ is issued. They were not capable of that before. Popular opinion is that they are looking at your verizon texts and Fb messages. No, they are not. They don't have the headcount and don't have the authority to do so. They simply have an aggregated mass of data in which to more effectively pull from. Note that verizon used to quote them 30 days to pull records. Imagine waiting that long in an active investigation. Now they can have that information, when need, almost instantly.

Taking a look at this intelligently rather than hysterically is important. One note that seems to be overlooked is the fact that this is pretty much meaningless in the war on terror. Islamic extremists learn day 1 not to use cell phones, bank accounts, and electric conversation. Information in formalized terror networks is passed hand to hand. Currency is passed through the Hawala system.
Well, looking at this intelligently...do you believe (personally) that all the crap the government is doing (whatever it is) actually thwarts terrorism in the US?
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Old 06-25-2013, 07:03 PM   #22
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Well, looking at this intelligently...do you believe (personally) that all the crap the government is doing (whatever it is) actually thwarts terrorism in the US?
I can answer this question. The answer is: Yes. It actually does thwart terrorism in the US. This is how I believe this:

I have done insurance fraud analysis. Looking at the data, I know nothing more than the parameters I am able to measure. Who their adjuster is, when they filed the claim, their medical history, things like that. I can synthetically create new datapoints based upon those as well.

I cannot tell who is doing fraud and who is not without looking at everyone as a whole. I would find this using something called cluster analysis. Essentially, I find large globs of people all doing what they supposed to be doing (e.g. the average), and small globs of people all doing what they should not be doing. The people that deviate from the average are incredibly easy to spot. Doing this, I can go back, look at those committing fraud, find those specific characteristics, calculate some new synthetic variables, re-create a model, find more people, go back, tune my model, etc. It is an iterative process in which the more information I have, the easier it is for me to spot fraud.

I did not have any specific information about those committing fraud. I only had very basic variables. Things they reported (e.g. heart history, smoker, etc.), policies they had, claims they've filed, their payouts received, age, things like that. I could not determine precisely who any one person was, and I did not care who any one person was unless they were doing something wrong, and even then, I would submit that information to someone else to investigate.

Apply that same concept to the government, except much more data and much information. Take that information, translate it into models, and you will be able to more accurately determine who is doing wrong and who is not. Those are types of things that they are doing. When the model itself is leaked out, people learn what they are measuring, and people become sneakier in how they are going to conduct their business. More specifically, terrorists will. Ignorance of these types of things is fairly key to the models to work, because you are modeling human behavior, after all. It is the same reason why no credit card company will ever release how their fraud models are created. If people knew, people would change how they did things such that they did not show up under the measured variables.

I can very confidently tell you that yes, it more than likely has worked.

When people say, "Why are they looking at me when I haven't done anything," it's because you are helping to provide a baseline for the average of people who are not doing wrong.

That being said, that doesn't make it any less of an invasion of privacy; but knowing how this stuff tends to work, I don't really care.

All I can say is, if the government is using modern analytical techniques, of which I know the CIA actively does, it's all based off of very advanced math and statistics that will make your head spin.

Most people don't understand analytics. It's complicated, it is a lot of math, and it is even more difficult to explain. People associate data collection with a person staring at them with a magnifying glass when, in this day and age, really isn't all that true. I can almost promise you that if data is being collected on you, you are part of a massive, gigantic pool of other people and being looked at as merely a number and not a person. Unless you are actively doing wrong stuff, or at least happen to do the same things that wrongdoers are doing, then someone might look directly at you.

Here is what I mean by that:

I have also done genetic research. I was given close to 200,000 genes, and was asked to find the useful ones. I can't look at every last gene and see how it contributes to genetic expression. It's impossible. There's not enough time in the day to do that. So, I took all of those genes, did tons of extremely complicated math, statistics, and machine learning, and narrowed it down to about 20.

I deemed those other 199,980 genes not useful based upon my work. Unless any other information was useful in them that they knew of that my model completely missed, they weren't going to look at them. Instead of looking at any of those 199,980 genes, they were going to look more closely at those 20. Are all of those 20 useful? Unlikely. Are at least a certain number useful? Very likely. Were there other useful genes that my model may have thrown out? Very possible. All of that is assumed with a certain amount of acceptable risk when building the models.

Again, take that principle and apply it to terrorism. 200,000 people, 199,980 that don't matter, 20 suspected. Investigate those 20. Of those 20, I am sure at least a certain amount is a terrorist. The others that were not doing something wrong and were investigated are where where the model missed it. Same thing with terrorists that the model did not deem suspects. Those that got investigated wrongly will make a big deal bout it, and it will make the news. All of the people not knowing how they got to that point will assume that the government is staring at them with a magnifying glass, when again, it is most likely not the case.

It is all Type I and Type II error in the end.

I am sorry to say, but if you think that none of that data snooping has worked, then you are very mistaken.
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Old 06-25-2013, 07:20 PM   #23
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He's an absolute hero and a patriot

Should be rewarded for his actions

I salute him
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Old 06-25-2013, 07:36 PM   #24
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I can answer this question. The answer is: Yes. It actually does thwart terrorism in the US. This is how I believe this:

I have done insurance fraud analysis. Looking at the data, I know nothing more than the parameters I am able to measure. Who their adjuster is, when they filed the claim, their medical history, things like that. I can synthetically create new datapoints based upon those as well.

I cannot tell who is doing fraud and who is not without looking at everyone as a whole. I would find this using something called cluster analysis. Essentially, I find large globs of people all doing what they supposed to be doing (e.g. the average), and small globs of people all doing what they should not be doing. The people that deviate from the average are incredibly easy to spot. Doing this, I can go back, look at those committing fraud, find those specific characteristics, calculate some new synthetic variables, re-create a model, find more people, go back, tune my model, etc. It is an iterative process in which the more information I have, the easier it is for me to spot fraud.

I did not have any specific information about those committing fraud. I only had very basic variables. Things they reported (e.g. heart history, smoker, etc.), policies they had, claims they've filed, their payouts received, age, things like that. I could not determine precisely who any one person was, and I did not care who any one person was unless they were doing something wrong, and even then, I would submit that information to someone else to investigate.

Apply that same concept to the government, except much more data and much information. Take that information, translate it into models, and you will be able to more accurately determine who is doing wrong and who is not. Those are types of things that they are doing. When the model itself is leaked out, people learn what they are measuring, and people become sneakier in how they are going to conduct their business. More specifically, terrorists will. Ignorance of these types of things is fairly key to the models to work, because you are modeling human behavior, after all. It is the same reason why no credit card company will ever release how their fraud models are created. If people knew, people would change how they did things such that they did not show up under the measured variables.

I can very confidently tell you that yes, it more than likely has worked.

When people say, "Why are they looking at me when I haven't done anything," it's because you are helping to provide a baseline for the average of people who are not doing wrong.

That being said, that doesn't make it any less of an invasion of privacy; but knowing how this stuff tends to work, I don't really care.

All I can say is, if the government is using modern analytical techniques, of which I know the CIA actively does, it's all based off of very advanced math and statistics that will make your head spin.

Most people don't understand analytics. It's complicated, it is a lot of math, and it is even more difficult to explain. People associate data collection with a person staring at them with a magnifying glass when, in this day and age, really isn't all that true. I can almost promise you that if data is being collected on you, you are part of a massive, gigantic pool of other people and being looked at as merely a number and not a person. Unless you are actively doing wrong stuff, or at least happen to do the same things that wrongdoers are doing, then someone might look directly at you.

Here is what I mean by that:

I have also done genetic research. I was given close to 200,000 genes, and was asked to find the useful ones. I can't look at every last gene and see how it contributes to genetic expression. It's impossible. There's not enough time in the day to do that. So, I took all of those genes, did tons of extremely complicated math, statistics, and machine learning, and narrowed it down to about 20.

I deemed those other 199,980 genes not useful based upon my work. Unless any other information was useful in them that they knew of that my model completely missed, they weren't going to look at them. Instead of looking at any of those 199,980 genes, they were going to look more closely at those 20. Are all of those 20 useful? Unlikely. Are at least a certain number useful? Very likely. Were there other useful genes that my model may have thrown out? Very possible. All of that is assumed with a certain amount of acceptable risk when building the models.

Again, take that principle and apply it to terrorism. 200,000 people, 199,980 that don't matter, 20 suspected. Investigate those 20. Of those 20, I am sure at least a certain amount is a terrorist. The others that were not doing something wrong and were investigated are where where the model missed it. Same thing with terrorists that the model did not deem suspects. Those that got investigated wrongly will make a big deal bout it, and it will make the news. All of the people not knowing how they got to that point will assume that the government is staring at them with a magnifying glass, when again, it is most likely not the case.

It is all Type I and Type II error in the end.

I am sorry to say, but if you think that none of that data snooping has worked, then you are very mistaken.
The point of my question was simply for opinion continuity...if you believe the war on terror is a waste of time and resources, then Snowden would be a champ since the government is spying on us (whatever the capacity) for no real reason other than an illusion of safety but a reality of keeping tabs on the populace. If you believe the intel gathered does indeed thwart terrorism, then you would think he is a chump.

I am not convinced by the government that an invasion of my privacy keeps me safe, nor do I believe that our liberties should be exchanged to make something easier for the government to accomplish. Basically, in my eyes, liberty above all, thus, Snowden would have to be labeled a champ.

Unfortunately, we live in a time where our government is no longer looking out for the people, is very corrupt, not-at-all transparent, and thus, and this is my opinion only, cannot be trusted.
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Old 06-25-2013, 07:57 PM   #25
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You are right though, in the end we never will know how it works. I could be entirely wrong for all I know. The only way we will is by getting insights from people like Snowden.

I don't mind mass metadata-type analytics, but it is an issue for me if someone can silently use my cell phone as a microphone, for example. Which I wonder if they can do...but wouldn't be surprised if they could just given how interconnected the world is... that would be a very simple program parameter. It's far from impossible, which is scary to think about.
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Old 06-25-2013, 10:32 PM   #26
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I'll go with "D: Twit"

People are getting so bent about this.

Did you honestly think the NSA wasn't spying on some/all US citizens without having a court order? Really? You honestly believed that? Have you been living under a rock for the 50+ years?

They are the bleepin NSA. Hate to pi$$ on your delusional parade, but, that is what the NSA does. It is part and parcel of their job description. (Perhaps not their published job description, but, their practical job description).

I am not saying it's right. I am just saying it is. And it has been for decades.


I think most people aren't offended by the fact that the NSA was spying on US citizens. It's that they were told about it.As long as they didn't "really know", they were OK with it happening. But, now that they "really know" they have to act all offended.

Snowden saw an opportunity to make some $$ and some quick fame, but, the primary motivation was $$$.


Perhaps the bigger concern here should be not the NSA but what all these corporations can do with your information & data & how they "spy" on you and that most people let them quite willingly.

Anybody here ever read Google's (or insert company here) terms & conditions or their privacy policy? Show of hands?

Chances are you give away more "spyable" data every day than the NSA ever collected on you. That is not a defense of the NSA, it is an indictment of the other.
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Old 06-25-2013, 10:39 PM   #27
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Originally Posted by Zell View Post
I don't mind mass metadata-type analytics, but it is an issue for me if someone can silently use my cell phone as a microphone, for example. Which I wonder if they can do...but wouldn't be surprised if they could just given how interconnected the world is... that would be a very simple program parameter. It's far from impossible, which is scary to think about.
Very possible. Likely, a reality. If they can use your laptop to not only be a microphone, but a data recorder, and transmit that data using their own compression and encryption. Yes, it is more than possible. After all, your iPhone, Android, Crackberry, Samsumg Galaxy S4, etc is nothing but a computer.

You might want to take a look at this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flame_(malware)

From a CompSci standpoint. Its quite a "pretty" (I have heard others use the term "sexy") piece of SW engineering. Small, modular, extensible.
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Old 06-25-2013, 10:40 PM   #28
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I'll go with "D: Twit"

People are getting so bent about this.

Did you honestly think the NSA wasn't spying on some/all US citizens without having a court order? Really? You honestly believed that? Have you been living under a rock for the 50+ years?

They are the bleepin NSA. Hate to pi$$ on your delusional parade, but, that is what the NSA does. It is part and parcel of their job description. (Perhaps not their published job description, but, their practical job description).

I am not saying it's right. I am just saying it is. And it has been for decades.


I think most people aren't offended by the fact that the NSA was spying on US citizens. It's that they were told about it.As long as they didn't "really know", they were OK with it happening. But, now that they "really know" they have to act all offended.

Snowden saw an opportunity to make some $$ and some quick fame, but, the primary motivation was $$$.


Perhaps the bigger concern here should be not the NSA but what all these corporations can do with your information & data & how they "spy" on you and that most people let them quite willingly.

Anybody here ever read Google's (or insert company here) terms & conditions or their privacy policy? Show of hands?

Chances are you give away more "spyable" data every day than the NSA ever collected on you. That is not a defense of the NSA, it is an indictment of the other.
But then the logic (of the government) would be borderline insane...They want to charge the man who broke the law, by revealing to the world that the government that wants to charge him is breaking the law....
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Old 06-25-2013, 10:43 PM   #29
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But then the logic (of the government) would be borderline insane...They want to charge the man who broke the law, by revealing to the world that the government that wants to charge him is breaking the law....
I never said, or argued that, the logic of government (US or others) was sane.
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Old 06-26-2013, 06:34 AM   #30
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The US has become such a police state since 9/11 and its getting worse.
I think at some point i was eligible to become a US citizen, boy i am glad i never became one.
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Old 06-26-2013, 06:55 AM   #31
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I think he is a champ that turned into a chump. If he would have returned after his original disclosure it is most likely that popular opinion would have helped him out.

Now, after consorting with foreign governments and disclosing even more, he has shot himself in the foot. In the end, he will wish he aimed for his head.
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Old 06-26-2013, 07:33 AM   #32
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He's an absolute hero and a patriot

Should be rewarded for his actions

I salute him
For breaching his nondisclosure, clearance and disclosing US intelligence capability?

He needs to be strung up on the white house lawn.
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Old 06-26-2013, 07:36 AM   #33
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Well, looking at this intelligently...do you believe (personally) that all the crap the government is doing (whatever it is) actually thwarts terrorism in the US?
It gives them better infrastructure to react to threats faster and more effectively with the entirety of data. They no longer need to wait for data from x company to investigate. They just need the court order and they can search their own aggregated data.
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Old 06-26-2013, 08:48 AM   #34
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...the primary motivation was $$$.
From my understanding he was incredibly well paid as it was. Why would you sacrifice your entire life, all your friends and family and risk possible jail time for a few extra bucks?
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Old 06-26-2013, 09:14 AM   #35
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From my understanding he was incredibly well paid as it was. Why would you sacrifice your entire life, all your friends and family and risk possible jail time for a few extra bucks?
Narcissism. No amount of money trumps world wide exposure to a nut like him. Plus, $120k vs. this type of exposure?
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Old 06-26-2013, 09:32 AM   #36
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Very possible. Likely, a reality. If they can use your laptop to not only be a microphone, but a data recorder, and transmit that data using their own compression and encryption. Yes, it is more than possible. After all, your iPhone, Android, Crackberry, Samsumg Galaxy S4, etc is nothing but a computer.

You might want to take a look at this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flame_(malware)

From a CompSci standpoint. Its quite a "pretty" (I have heard others use the term "sexy") piece of SW engineering. Small, modular, extensible.
Yep, pretty amazing stuff.

When you think about it, there are no physical rules governing how these objects should function. My webcam has a green light turn on when it is in use, because that is how someone programmed it to work. There is nothing physical during the programming phase that stops anyone from just leaving that parameter out. Shoot, there's nothing that stops anyone from having the webcam turn on, take screenshots of my desktop, get my location based upon WiFi, and send it to a private server. All of that information is possible to obtain. The only thing stopping them is the ideas and trust of others.

If the government really wanted to do some sort of secretive deal with private companies to allow for that programming to happen, then that could be very possible. I have no proof of it, but just saying, that's totally a possibility. We already have known that some companies provide government back door passwords to encrypted information. The government has an entire internal intranet that is not marked on any sewer/underground line maps (can't find the article, but basically a farmer dug in some land, accidentally cut a line that wasn't marked on any of his maps, black SUV rolls up in about 15 minutes to tell them that he just cut their line). Can you imagine what kind of information is passed back and forth through that? It's fascinating.

The only hope that we have is that programmers and companies have the integrity to not allow that to happen. In the end, that's really what we are banking on.

No tinfoil hat here, just talking about things that could actually be done. I choose to believe that these types of extremely personal spying things of any one random citizen are very unlikely given the sheer amount of data, people, and devices in the USA. Even if I am totally wrong, ignorance is bliss. It'll become not bliss if a black SUV rolls up to my house and I get taken away for some reason, but again, I wager that won't happen given my own personal history. That, and I know I am not a terrorist. I am a pretty boring person as far as the government is concerned.
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Old 06-26-2013, 09:33 AM   #37
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I'm glad he exposed it, but you have to be pretty naive to believe that these types of things weren't happening in this day&age.
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Old 06-26-2013, 03:11 PM   #38
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Hero. Truth is, if anyone asked the government if they were spying on people on a daily basis, the govt. would decline. They would call you a quack, like they did Ron Paul. The media would eat you for breakfast calling you a conspiracy theorist and unamerican. Then someone actually turns against the most powerful and sophisticated govt in the world and exposes their garbage and people think he is a traitor? The only thing he is is a bad employee.
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Old 06-26-2013, 03:17 PM   #39
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Hero. Truth is, if anyone asked the government if they were spying on people on a daily basis, the govt. would decline. They would call you a quack, like they did Ron Paul. The media would eat you for breakfast calling you a conspiracy theorist and unamerican. Then someone actually turns against the most powerful and sophisticated govt in the world and exposes their garbage and people think he is a traitor? The only thing he is is a bad employee.
Did you end up marrying that girl you were dating while in Gainesville yet?
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Old 06-26-2013, 03:20 PM   #40
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I knew it was you all along man - lol. We broke up sometime ago, im with a new lady
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