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Old 08-06-2016, 03:52 PM   #21
Act of God
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Citation on labor force

http://cepr.net/blogs/beat-the-press...-participation
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Old 08-06-2016, 03:58 PM   #22
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There's barely two paragraphs with zero supporting data, man!

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/20...icipation.html

A another, more in depth look. Again, I mentioned there are other factors outside of the single largest one (demographics).

Edit: And another one....

https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2015...cipation-rate/

....this one particularly focuses in on the "prime working age" people.
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Old 08-06-2016, 05:07 PM   #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by evolved View Post
There's barely two paragraphs with zero supporting data, man!

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/20...icipation.html

A another, more in depth look. Again, I mentioned there are other factors outside of the single largest one (demographics).

Edit: And another one....

https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2015...cipation-rate/

....this one particularly focuses in on the "prime working age" people.
It's not central to my thesis anyway, the point is we're getting to a level where we're going to start to have to pay a lot of people not to work. This is not just due to advancements in production, this is due to the fact that we're letting the top businesses write the rules to prevent competition.

People still make widgets, just not here. It is undeniable that trade deals have resulted in jobs going overseas and DOW rising. It's funny, income inequality has literally nothing to do with tax rates and everything to do with business-government collusion.

Now, if you will excuse me I am exhausted from looking at wedding halls all day and need to go get sh!tfaced. $155 a plate? Sweet, cheapest one today!
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Old 08-06-2016, 05:09 PM   #24
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btw, if we're doing source wars

https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/def...e_male_lfp.pdf
THE LONG-TERM DECLINE IN PRIME -AGE MALE LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION

(not my caps)
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Old 08-08-2016, 10:52 AM   #25
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It's not central to my thesis anyway, the point is we're getting to a level where we're going to start to have to pay a lot of people not to work. This is not just due to advancements in production, this is due to the fact that we're letting the top businesses write the rules to prevent competition.

People still make widgets, just not here. It is undeniable that trade deals have resulted in jobs going overseas and DOW rising. It's funny, income inequality has literally nothing to do with tax rates and everything to do with business-government collusion.
It's also undeniable that the decline in the number of pirates has coincided with the increase in global temperature averages. The point is, however, that unless I can correlate the two, it doesn't mean anything....similar to your jobs/DOW correlation.

Jobs going overseas is a natural part of any economy as it matures and grows. Could that be part of the reason why we have fewer manufacturing jobs here? Probably. Is it the primary reason? Doubtful. Automation killed the manufacturers job prospects, not NAFTA. The US consumers desire for cheaply made product, too, killed off some of those jobs.

This does not mean that there can be steps taken to help increase low skill manufacturer jobs, but ripping up NAFTA isn't one of those steps.

And at thinking taxes have nothing to do any aspect of income inequality.


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Originally Posted by Act of God View Post
btw, if we're doing source wars

https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/def...e_male_lfp.pdf
THE LONG-TERM DECLINE IN PRIME -AGE MALE LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION

(not my caps)


No way you read all of that because if you did, me thinks you wouldn't have posted it. Cliff's notes.....

-Trend started 60 years ago.
-Better education (ie, college) leads to better job prospects and economic well being.
-Less education (ie, high school or less) leads to more joblessness.
-Data suggests that very little of the decline can be attributed to public assistance.
-"Conventional economic theory posits that more "flexible" labor markets -- where it is easier to hire/fire workers -- facilitate matches between employers and individuals who want to work. Yet despite having among the most flexible labor markets in the OECD -- with low levels of (...) regulation, low (...) cost of labor, and low rates of collective bargaining -- the US has one of the lowest prime-age male labor force participation rates of OECD member countries."


Again, I'm not saying that there are not other factors. There are, without a doubt. More men staying at home as caregivers, retiring early, going to school (positives). On the other hand, not being able to get a job post-recession, lack of demand for their skill set, etc (negatives). Something the study discusses, as well, is that this drop in the rate for the prime-agers has a lot to do with the sharp increase in incarceration starting in the early 80's.


As for source wars....you posted two paragraphs with little context and no data. I've posted multiple links, over the past few years, detailing various statistics and trends. It's primarily demographics, despite what you want to feel. That doesn't mean that there aren't other factors that cannot, or should not, be addressed and improved upon.
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Old 08-08-2016, 10:52 AM   #26
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And at $155 a plate
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Old 08-08-2016, 01:04 PM   #27
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And at $155 a plate
I think that's the place we're going with too, efff
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Old 09-21-2016, 11:24 AM   #28
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Great article on Stratfor today in regards to NAFTA. Stratfor does a good job at being pretty non-partisan, and this article follows through.


Quote:
Summary
Editor's Note:This is the final installment of a seven-part series examining how the world's regional economic blocs are faring as the largest of them - the European Union - continues to fragment.
More than two decades after its signing, the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) is still a source of controversy. But the debates occurring in the bloc's member states - the United States, Mexico and Canada - are less about whether their experiment in integration was a good idea and more about how close they should get. The three were bound to merge in some respects, after all, considering that North America is one of the only major economic regions that can largely sustain itself without trading beyond its borders.

Even so, the contention that surrounds the prospect of deeper ties among NAFTA's economies will likely prevent the bloc from seriously considering steps beyond the free trade agreement it already has in place. Instead, the geopolitical forces pulling the organization's members together will manifest in less formal links, such as the construction of connective infrastructure, tightening of regional supply chains and growth in energy trade. Whether NAFTA will remain the dominant framework for North American trade in the long run, or someday be superseded by a more robust deal like the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), is unclear. It is clear, however, that at least for the next few decades, the three NAFTA members will maintain their close friendship, regardless of the form it takes.

Analysis
North America has been endowed with geographic advantages that few other regions in the world have. From central Canada's Great Plains to the United States' Mississippi River Basin and Mexico's Gulf Coast, the continent's vast river networks and arable land have laid the groundwork for its lasting prosperity. Though the United States' location, wealth, abundance of natural resources, and established military and economic might have enabled it to dominate the Atlantic and Pacific oceans today, the same could easily be true of another North American power in the future.

For now, though, the United States' massive consumer economy has made it, by default, the region's economic engine. Mexican and Canadian exports are relentlessly drawn toward the U.S. market, just as U.S. goods head first and foremost to its northern and southern neighbors. Some economic integration - and often security and political coordination - was therefore only natural, with or without a formal framework such as NAFTA in place.

(Image clipped)

But this inclination toward connectivity did not draw the three countries together as quickly as one might expect. Beyond a restricted and short-lived trade deal prior to Canada's independence, a full-blown free trade agreement between the United States and Canada did not materialize until 1989; a similar deal including Mexico was not struck until 1994. The slow pace of their integration was largely due to the political debates it stirred in NAFTA's member states. Canada had long fought to preserve its sovereignty and was torn over whether a trade deal would bring it one step closer to a political union with its giant southern neighbor. Mexico, meanwhile, was ruled for decades by an Institutional Revolutionary Party dynasty that had staked its political future on the protectionist and nationalist fervor that emerged when the state took over the Mexican oil industry in 1938. Breaking down the resistance to regional free trade in both countries took generations, just as whittling away at the current opposition to deeper integration will likely take generations more.

This year's North American Leaders' Summit, NAFTA's annual conference, showed just how persistent North America's aversion to closer ties is. The U.S. Republican Party's then-presumptive presidential nominee, Donald Trump, declared in a speech that if he were chosen to lead the country, he would renegotiate the NAFTA arrangement or invoke the article allowing for the United States' withdrawal. Trump's stance is hardly new to U.S. politics; both Democratic rival Hillary Clinton and current President Barack Obama made the same claims during their 2008 campaigns.

Cooperation, for Better or Worse
On the surface, NAFTA appears to have had a hefty impact on North American trade. In 1993, the year before Mexico joined the bloc, trade between the United States and its southern neighbor equaled less than $300 billion. By 2015, that figure had risen to $1.1 trillion. As a whole, 52 percent of NAFTA members' exports and 34 percent of their imports now go to or come from fellow bloc members, and their internal trade accounts for a whopping 14 percent of global trade. Of course, none of these gains can be attributed solely to the creation of NAFTA; they also came as trade rose worldwide and as changes in technology stretched and expanded global supply chains.

(Image clipped)

The potential downsides to NAFTA have been similarly difficult to tease out. One of NAFTA's biggest political goals, for example, was to spur industrialization in Mexico in the hope of reducing economic disparity among the bloc's members. And for the most part, Mexico has benefited as planned: Today, exports of Mexican vehicles and their parts to the United States and Canada have more than tripled, amounting to an impressive $80 billion (and 21 percent of Mexico's total exports) in 2015. The automobile sector, along with other industrialized sectors such as plastics, electronics and aerospace - many of which are specifically geared toward the U.S. and Canadian markets - have become indispensable to the Mexican economy. NAFTA critics have noted, however, that Mexico's industrialization has hardly been uniform and that its gains have largely been concentrated in key metropolitan or border areas such as Puebla, Monterrey and Mexico City.

In the United States, moreover, the bloc has taken the fall for the recent disappearance of manufacturing jobs. From 1965 to 2000, 17 million to 19 million U.S. workers were employed in the manufacturing sector. But since then, the sector has bottomed out, dipping to as low as 11.5 million jobs in 2010 - the fewest in the United States since it entered World War II. The loss of manufacturing jobs has been problematic to say the least for certain cities, particularly since the industries they service often support the communities they are built on. Gary, Indiana, for instance, grew into a city of nearly 180,000 after it was founded by the U.S. Steel Corp. in 1906. Today, its population is thought to be below 80,000.

Though U.S. manufacturing jobs have certainly declined, it is difficult to pinpoint how much of that slump is directly related to NAFTA rather than to broader changes in the U.S. economy, technological advances, rising U.S. labor costs or trade agreements with other countries such as China. In fact, there is an argument to be made that deeper economic integration with Mexico has protected some U.S. industries, though most studies have concluded that NAFTA's impact on the U.S. labor market and job creation has been minimal. Since the 1980s, global supply chains have undergone a dramatic transformation. Trade in components and parts - not just the final assembled products - has grown, especially in Asian electronics and automobile sectors. Mexico's protectionist policies (and the United States') in these sectors have allowed it to thrive, becoming the middle-tier, middle-wage manufacturing hub that U.S. workers simply are not interested in being a part of. Mexico's automobile sector has since woven itself into the United States' sector, where cheaper Mexico-made parts can support what otherwise may have been unprofitable U.S. endeavors. Volkswagen, for example, was nearly forced to pull out of North America in response to rising costs. Now it has opened a major auto plant in Chattanooga, Tennessee, where it sources 85 percent of its parts from other NAFTA states (the bulk of which come from Mexico).


Unity That Transcends Union

For now, NAFTA's fate will remain subject to the ebb and flow of domestic politics, making the establishment of a customs union or a common market highly unlikely in the coming years. Realistically, the development gap between the Mexican economy on one hand and the U.S. and Canadian economies on the other will be politically difficult to bridge in the pursuit of deeper ties. The creation of a smaller customs union between the United States and Canada, by comparison, is far more feasible if their attention moves beyond their current focus: renegotiating NAFTA to better protect their citizens' jobs.

Even though a substantial reworking of the NAFTA accord is possible, it would not be easy, nor would it stop the bloc's members from ramping up their cooperation in other ways. Companies, supply chains, laws, standards, tariff structures and countless other operations have adjusted to the circumstances put in place by NAFTA's creation. Rolling the agreement back would be incredibly disruptive to them all, and though British voters were willing to absorb such a shock because of their concerns about European immigration, no similar catalyst exists in North America to trigger the departure of one of NAFTA's members.

In the meantime, Mexico - which, because of its comparatively small economy, stands to gain the most from deeper integration - will continue to push for fewer trade restrictions and barriers among NAFTA states, particularly as it liberalizes and develops its manufacturing sector. New technologies such as advanced manufacturing techniques will probably shift some manufacturing away from other parts of the world and back toward North America as well. And Mexico, with its lower wages and rising semi-skilled workforce, will be well-positioned to receive it, cementing the country's role as the United States' primary manufacturing provider. The United States' preoccupation with job loss will no doubt continue to be a pressing issue for Washington, but its trade and labor disputes will likely center more on Asia and the TPP over the coming decade as the United States turns its gaze toward the Pacific.

Closer to home, the NAFTA debate will morph into a bilateral dispute between the United States and Mexico over immigration. The conflict is more likely to play out in favor of deeper integration than against it, with the Hispanic vote swaying U.S. politics toward cooperation with Mexico on several issues. The uptick in migration from Mexico to the United States is beginning to level off as the Mexican economy improves (thanks in part to NAFTA) and as more jobs become available south of the border. Rising U.S. nationalism is unlikely to create backlash against Mexico itself, but much as it has in the manufacturing jobs debate, U.S. political rhetoric on immigration has been slow to catch up with realities on the ground.

Either way, there is little to suggest that North American trade ties will dissolve any time soon. But the framework dictating them could. The TPP, which includes all of NAFTA's members as well as most of the Pacific Rim, might someday render the North American bloc moot, though it, too, faces political obstacles that it may never overcome. In many ways the TPP is a more robust trade agreement than NAFTA, and the United States considers it a crucial opportunity to counter the rise of China - whose economy, by some accounts, is already larger than the United States' - in the Asia-Pacific region. Mexico and Canada, by comparison, view the potential bloc as a threat to their competitiveness within the U.S. market. (Mexico, in particular, directly competes with many Asian exporters.) Even so, participating in the TPP, should it come to pass, will be necessary for NAFTA's smaller members to ensure their continued connection to the United States. And this is the dynamic that will define the future of North American integration: The United States will continue to set the pace and direction of its own global trade ties, leaving Canada and Mexico no choice but to follow its lead.
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Old 09-21-2016, 11:28 AM   #29
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Can you give a link, I'm having a hard time reading this format
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Old 09-21-2016, 11:29 AM   #30
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Can you give a link, I'm having a hard time reading this format
Yeah, I tried to clean it up, lol. I got it via email at work....let me see what I can find.

Edit: I cleaned up the paragraph breaks....let me work on the link.

2nd Edit: https://www.stratfor.com/sample/anal...ral-advantages You'll have to get it via email, I think.
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Old 09-21-2016, 11:38 AM   #31
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Yeah, I tried to clean it up, lol. I got it via email at work....let me see what I can find.

Edit: I cleaned up the paragraph breaks....let me work on the link.

2nd Edit: https://www.stratfor.com/sample/anal...ral-advantages You'll have to get it via email, I think.
Hate to do this, but I'm reading a lot that Statfor is a globalist outfit
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Old 09-21-2016, 11:46 AM   #32
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Hate to do this, but I'm reading a lot that Statfor is a globalist outfit
Omfg...gtfo.
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Old 09-21-2016, 11:53 AM   #33
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Evolved: I didnt know you were a Stratfor subscriber! Such an informative organization. I wonder if there are any others here.
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Old 09-21-2016, 11:58 AM   #34
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Hate to do this, but I'm reading a lot that Statfor is a globalist outfit
Ay dios mio!
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Old 09-21-2016, 11:59 AM   #35
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Evolved: I didnt know you were a Stratfor subscriber! Such an informative organization. I wonder if there are any others here.
Yep! I feel like it's similar to the Economist, but it has a much broader scope, while not losing any depth (more, in my opinion).
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Old 09-21-2016, 12:41 PM   #36
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Ay dios mio!
Reading up on him (George Friedman)

https://www.lewrockwell.com/2013/06/...-of-globalism/
'The High Priests of Globalization': Bilderberg Conference Convenes
Quote:
In 2011, Foreign Policy magazine called him one of the world’s “top global thinkers.” He’s Stratfor Global Intelligence chief geopolitical analyst. According to Professor Daniel Drezner:

“What Kaplan and George Friedman share is a sense of geographical determinism that allows them to claim predictive powers.”
I liked this article from him

http://www.mauldineconomics.com/this...lth-of-nations
Free Trade, Politics, and the Wealth of Nations
BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN



I take issue with your non-partisan label here, as it is irrelevant to this discussion. This is one area where democrats and republicans work together. There's a reason Bush is supporting Hillary.

Us v. them
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Old 09-21-2016, 12:43 PM   #37
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So....did you read the article? Or do you 100% dismiss anything you deem related to "globalism"
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Old 09-21-2016, 12:58 PM   #38
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So....did you read the article? Or do you 100% dismiss anything you deem related to "globalism"
Of course I read it, along with George Friedman's article I just posted. He seems to agree that "free" trade produces winners and losers. I wonder how actual free trade would do...because we don't have free trade.
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Old 09-21-2016, 04:41 PM   #39
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Of course I read it, along with George Friedman's article I just posted. He seems to agree that "free" trade produces winners and losers. I wonder how actual free trade would do...because we don't have free trade.
I was referring to primarily the benefit of NAFTA to the US, which I know you think it has been a net loss.....I strongly disagree with that. It has been a net positive. That doesn't mean that there are zero downsides, but the good outweighs the bad at this point.
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Old 09-21-2016, 05:25 PM   #40
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I was referring to primarily the benefit of NAFTA to the US, which I know you think it has been a net loss.....I strongly disagree with that. It has been a net positive. That doesn't mean that there are zero downsides, but the good outweighs the bad at this point.
Outweighs the bad for whom? Did you read Friedman's article on it that I posted? There's a huge backlash against this globalist agenda, and for good reason.

Again, this isn't "free" trade. This is corporatism and cronyism under the guise of free trade.

Enjoy your Mexican Fords!
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