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Old 04-24-2014, 06:11 AM   #1021
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Originally Posted by WDE46 View Post
You're not understanding the difference between predicting day-to-day weather and predicting long term trends in temperature.
I guess that could apply to every time the President or other climate alarmists point to a particular event such as a storm (remember how they ranted about Sandy?) or seasonal anomaly (remember the speech by POTUS about the west coast drought?) or natural disaster (recall the hysteria about the Washington mudslide?)
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Old 04-24-2014, 06:18 AM   #1022
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That's not my field. You'll have to ask a meteorologist on what causes weather. I don't know the exact, precise mechanics behind it. An engineer probably does since a lot of them take thermo in college.

If you want to ask me questions that I can answer, then you're going to have to stick to things like predicting the weather, predicting what's going to happen in the future with events that happen over time, how one determines these trends, why we are incorrect or correct on models, why we think CO2 is a predictor, etc.

I can answer things like data questions. Statistics questions. How we prove things and why it works. Hard number science. I'm in the business of predicting things using vast, vast amounts data. Data I usually work with is on the order of millions or hundreds of millions of points. I learn the background that I need to understand what I am working with, and then I get to work with it.

I really enjoy this line of work, so please ask and I will do my best to answer. Or I'll just start a damn AMA thread already.



Sounds kind of like picking out which molecular compounds are considered chemicals and which aren't.
Now I get it! You're an NSA analyst! You're spying on us!
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Old 04-24-2014, 07:35 AM   #1023
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It's 2014 dude. I'm a scientist. I have a career in this very type of subject. Ask away.
A wild appeal to authority appears!
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Old 04-24-2014, 07:35 AM   #1024
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You're not understanding the difference between predicting day-to-day weather and predicting long term trends in temperature.
Well, enlight me. I only did weather studies from the 1980's until the mid 1990's, from the ice caps of the north pole to South Georgia. From topical, diurnal, seasonal, and cyclic weather when the warming was in effect there were no changes in weather, the only changes were in budget. If your study was to support global warming you got a grant, if your studies didn't support global warming then you were let go. Now tell me how many scientist were willing to let go of their grants?
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Old 04-24-2014, 07:36 AM   #1025
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Sounds kind of like picking out which molecular compounds are considered chemicals and which aren't.
yes, which I have already shown and you already admitted that I was correct.
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Old 04-24-2014, 08:06 AM   #1026
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yes, which I have already shown and you already admitted that I was correct.



You should run for office.
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Old 04-24-2014, 08:07 AM   #1027
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A wild appeal to authority appears!
People who live in houses made of fallacious arguments should not throw out accusations of fallacies.

So, what's your thought on this whole climate change/global warming thing?
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Old 04-24-2014, 08:14 AM   #1028
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You should run for office.
He couldn't do much worse than Obama, Reid, Pelosi, McConnell, or Beohner.
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Old 04-24-2014, 08:16 AM   #1029
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At least he knows a chemical when he sees it.
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Old 04-24-2014, 08:47 AM   #1030
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At least he knows a chemical when he sees it.
That settles it! I volunteer to be his campaign treasurer.
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Old 04-24-2014, 09:16 AM   #1031
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So, you take a bunch of data over a given time frame, and build a mathematical model that both fits the data given, and projects where the data will be as time extends into the future?
That's exactly right. It's not correct all of the time. It's very rare that I get an error of exactly 0%, but it does happen from time to time. In time series, we separate it out into two parts:

What happens tomorrow = Signal + Noise

"Signal" is the direct indicator of what's happening. Something that can tell us "here's what is likely to happen in the future given what we have seen in the past." This can be past data, or even other variables I incorporate.

"Noise" is stuff that we cannot explain right now. In the end, it truly is just missing information. Noise will always be there. If there was no noise, then you would have a perfect mathematical model that can predict every single day. Noise can take different forms. Sometimes it's dependent on time, and there are solutions for that. Other times it's normally distributed. Random noise is the biggest problem in time series.

We use various diagnostics to help determine whether we've found the signal or not. These are the biggest 4 that we like to use, because it's such a nice and easy graph form:


For example, in this this is a time series of airline sales. We can break down the signal portion of it.

We can see the trend part:


And the cyclical part:


We can then try to account for the errors as much as possible. In the end, we get our best guess for the future:


Here is another more complicated example considering Wine Sales that I did. These were wine sales over time, with additional models broken down by region.


It's not perfect by any means, but it has an error rate of about 7.2%. Overall, that is not too bad considering the random nature of the sales.

I am not an expert in wine sales. I don't know the first thing about fine wines. But what I can do is learn enough such that I can figure out what I need to do to give them a good future forecast, and that's all I needed.

In climate change science, a scientist will study these temperature trends, understand their best scientific guess on what causes it. They have a deep understanding of how and what causes temperature changes over time. What they may not know is how to properly predict or forecast using that information. That's where I come in.

They explain to me the problem and what they want to do. They give me a ton of variables. I read the background on it, and consider some other variables I can try as well. I study the variables, determine their properties, make adjustments as a result, design a model package, and try to give the best forecast I can. 95% accuracy has been my luck so far.

In fact a lot of this stuff has roots in signal processing. Things like finite impulse filters and whatnot (engineers here will probably know what that means).

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Now I get it! You're an NSA analyst! You're spying on us!


They pay stupidly well, surprisingly. I just have way too many problems with invading privacy to go into that.

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yes, which I have already shown and you already admitted that I was correct.
You went and googled "define:chemical" and posted that as a fact.

http://pubchem.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/summ...280&loc=ec_rcs

It is classified as a chemical compound. It's considered an inorganic chemical.

Quote:
A broad class of substances encompassing all those that do not include carbon and its derivatives as their principal elements. However, carbides, carbonates, cyanides, cyanates, and carbon disulfide are included in this class.
It does not react similarly to other organic compounds. If you bond two oxygen atoms with a carbon atom, you cannot have any other configuration. That's all it can be if you do that.

This is from the National Institute of Health. (http://www.nlm.nih.gov/mesh/meshhome.html).

You referenced the English Dictionary.

I never admitted you're correct. I admitted that you use the term incorrectly, but we know what you're talking about. You're attempting to redefine "chemical" as something sounding bad.
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Last edited by Zell; 04-24-2014 at 09:42 AM.
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Old 04-24-2014, 11:19 AM   #1032
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Looking at your airline model, it's obvious when 9/11 occurs. I guess in every model there is that chance event that will throw things out of whack. That's why you can never reach 100% accuracy.
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I just don't know what I'd do with 560 hp that doesn't involve getting arrested.
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Old 04-24-2014, 12:38 PM   #1033
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Exactly. Events like terrorism, sudden and drastic economic change, strikes, and other things can't be accounted for in the future through modeling alone. Now when those events do occur we can account for them, but if they haven't ever occurred in the past then there's nothing we can do but use short-term reactive modeling to see where it will go. This type of modeling is called intervention analysis. But in the end, if something is happening that we simply couldn't have ever accounted for, we can give our own best guess. On average though, human best guesses are much worse than statistical models. Human guesses work best on very abnormal demand events.

Once we see that event, we can then include it as a new variable. I can turn the variable on or off for the future if I have reason to believe a similar event will happen.

This is also why leading indicators from other sectors are extremely important.
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Old 04-24-2014, 04:01 PM   #1034
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But you could determine where air travel would be if 9/11 never happened. From there, you could accurately determine the economic impact of that event on the airline industry, correct?
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“The test of the machine is the satisfaction it gives you. There isn't any other test. If the machine produces tranquility it's right. If it disturbs you it's wrong until either the machine or your mind is changed.”

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I just don't know what I'd do with 560 hp that doesn't involve getting arrested.
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Old 04-24-2014, 06:14 PM   #1035
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But you could determine where air travel would be if 9/11 never happened. From there, you could accurately determine the economic impact of that event on the airline industry, correct?
Things don't happen in a vacuum. Just because 9/11 didn't happen, doesn't mean something else wouldn't have.
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Old 04-24-2014, 06:21 PM   #1036
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There are very few other things imaginable that could lead to that large of a drop in flying passengers.
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Old 04-24-2014, 07:17 PM   #1037
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Things don't happen in a vacuum. Just because 9/11 didn't happen, doesn't mean something else wouldn't have.
How do you mean?
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“The test of the machine is the satisfaction it gives you. There isn't any other test. If the machine produces tranquility it's right. If it disturbs you it's wrong until either the machine or your mind is changed.”

Quote:
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I just don't know what I'd do with 560 hp that doesn't involve getting arrested.
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Old 04-24-2014, 09:04 PM   #1038
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But you could determine where air travel would be if 9/11 never happened. From there, you could accurately determine the economic impact of that event on the airline industry, correct?
Yup. In fact, I use that type of information in other markets to help forecast the flights in my current job. Different markets react more quickly than others, and that helps me
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Old 04-24-2014, 09:24 PM   #1039
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I think you've started your AMA thread. My daughter is a math major, and wondering what she can do with her degree, besides teach. What types of careers are available for math majors, and how did you find yourself where you are now? (I tried to send you a PM, but your mailbox is full.)
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“The test of the machine is the satisfaction it gives you. There isn't any other test. If the machine produces tranquility it's right. If it disturbs you it's wrong until either the machine or your mind is changed.”

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike Miller - BIMMER
I just don't know what I'd do with 560 hp that doesn't involve getting arrested.
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Old 04-25-2014, 08:59 AM   #1040
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I think you've started your AMA thread. My daughter is a math major, and wondering what she can do with her degree, besides teach. What types of careers are available for math majors, and how did you find yourself where you are now? (I tried to send you a PM, but your mailbox is full.)
Full of doge pics.
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