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Old 01-09-2015, 02:40 PM   #2001
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lol false
Excellent point. Pack it up boys. The custodian has refuted the argument.
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Old 01-09-2015, 03:17 PM   #2002
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lol false
Why? Please cite sources.
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Old 01-09-2015, 03:52 PM   #2003
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Why? Please cite sources.
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V16/N50/EDIT.php


http://www.sciencemag.org/content/342/6158/617

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/10/3...obal-in-scope/

http://www.climatedepot.com/2013/10/...-co2-was-safe/
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Old 01-09-2015, 06:11 PM   #2004
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Only refers to warming in the North Atlantic/Europe. Site is "The Science and Public Policy Institute (SPPI) is a global warming skeptics organization which concerns itself with issues related to carbon dioxide and global warming. It was described by the New York Times as "a one-man operation that brings scientists to Capitol Hill on two issues: global warming and the health effects of mercury."[1]

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Only refers to a particular area (North Pacific), not overall global temperature during the MWP. Credible magazine though, even if article is misconstrued.

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Recitation of above Science Magazine article. Its founder, Anthony Watts while an American meteorologist, seems to have a primary political/ideological axe to grind that drives him from valid AGW skepticism to AGW denialism: "He further avers that what most bothers him about scientists and others who claim global warming is serious, is that, "They want to change policy. They want to apply taxes and these kinds of things may not be the actual solution for making a change to our society." Watts is a signatory to The Heartland Institute's Manhattan Declaration which calls on world leaders to "reject the views expressed by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change" and abandon "all taxes, regulations, and other interventions intended to reduce emissions of CO2".

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Cites, in a round about way (Climate Depot, run by a former Rush Limbaugh staffer > The Hockey Schtick (as if that doesn't give away a pre-existing bias) > to a "paper" by SPPI and CO2 Science, both well known (notorious) denialist sites funded by, among others, the Heartland Institute which is basically a front organization for various ultra conservatives (the Koch Brothers) pushing conservative economic/social policy/ideology foremost. Previously they were used by Big Tobacco to try to undercut the links between smoking and health risks and seem to use many of the same technique with AGW.

So once again, rather thin (on actual science) and/or very misleading references, mostly from a gaggle of AGW denialist sites.
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Old 01-10-2015, 01:59 AM   #2005
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http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB100014...00862654023702

http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/20...ng-period.html

http://notrickszone.com/2013/04/13/t...er-than-today/

http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworst...te-change-now/

I'm perfectly comfortable in saying that there is science supporting both stances, which goes to everything that I have been saying all along.
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Old 01-10-2015, 10:41 AM   #2006
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http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB100014...00862654023702

http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/20...ng-period.html

http://notrickszone.com/2013/04/13/t...er-than-today/

http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworst...te-change-now/

I'm perfectly comfortable in saying that there is science supporting both stances, which goes to everything that I have been saying all along.
Hence why you are a skeptic and those like dhumb who claim certainty are the real deniers in this debate. Inb4whackamole.
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Old 01-10-2015, 12:33 PM   #2007
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http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB100014...00862654023702

http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/20...ng-period.html

http://notrickszone.com/2013/04/13/t...er-than-today/

http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworst...te-change-now/

I'm perfectly comfortable in saying that there is science supporting both stances, which goes to everything that I have been saying all along.
Perhaps so, in some sense, but that's not to say its some close call or something, given the denialist side relies almost purely upon very weak, misrepresented and distorted science. I'll stick with the 90+% of actual climate scientists that say AGW is real.

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Old 01-10-2015, 02:24 PM   #2008
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Perhaps so, in some sense, but that's not to say its some close call or something, given the denialist side relies almost purely upon very weak, misrepresented and distorted science. I'll stick with the 90+% of actual climate scientists that say AGW is real.
Trust me v. Show me

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/01/0...show-me-state/
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Old 01-10-2015, 02:32 PM   #2009
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Papers: The Sun is the Climate Pacemaker
http://www.pas.rochester.edu/~dougla...I_in_press.pdf
http://www.pas.rochester.edu/~dougla...I_in_press.pdf
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Old 01-10-2015, 04:53 PM   #2010
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I'll stick with the 90+% of actual climate scientists that say AGW is real.
LOL, this is the least scientific viewpoint expressed in this entire thread.
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Old 01-13-2015, 09:37 AM   #2011
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http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...imate-science/
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Old 01-13-2015, 07:06 PM   #2012
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Apparently this is to follow the Dem push for Senate votes on the Earth being round and men actually landing on the moon. Repubs torn by these votes.
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Old 01-16-2015, 09:46 AM   #2013
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The show me crowd looks at the "good science" and points out that many historical predictions of doom and gloom (that previously met the test of good science) have been shown to be overheated or just plain wrong.
Because they report "This is going to happen," which is the worst way to report something. They're not fortune tellers.

What they don't report are the probabilities of the events that they are predicting, and then people get pissed.

A good example of this was the L'Aquila quake, where 7 scientists were sent to jail because they said there wasn't going to be an earthquake. What they should have done is given the probability of Quake and No Quake.

Another example would be the UK Meteorological Office's UK forecast for April 2012. They said that it would be drier than average, but it ended up being the wettest on record. Again, what they should have done is given the probabilities of those events:

Probability of Very Dry: 25%
Probability of Very Wet: 15%

This is why you always give the forecasting range and probabilities. This is the proper way to forecast.

They give these in the papers, but since people don't like actually reading and learning, journalism interns at news stations just pick it up and dumb it down to absolutes. Then they give their opinion of what they think in the headline, because facts are too hard to read.

When I give forecasts, I report:

- Probability of high
- Probability of low
- Final forecast
- Past performance
- Probability of high based upon best-estimate of probability density function
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Old 01-16-2015, 12:29 PM   #2014
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Because they report "This is going to happen," which is the worst way to report something. They're not fortune tellers.

What they don't report are the probabilities of the events that they are predicting, and then people get pissed.

A good example of this was the L'Aquila quake, where 7 scientists were sent to jail because they said there wasn't going to be an earthquake. What they should have done is given the probability of Quake and No Quake.

Another example would be the UK Meteorological Office's UK forecast for April 2012. They said that it would be drier than average, but it ended up being the wettest on record. Again, what they should have done is given the probabilities of those events:

Probability of Very Dry: 25%
Probability of Very Wet: 15%

This is why you always give the forecasting range and probabilities. This is the proper way to forecast.

They give these in the papers, but since people don't like actually reading and learning, journalism interns at news stations just pick it up and dumb it down to absolutes. Then they give their opinion of what they think in the headline, because facts are too hard to read.

When I give forecasts, I report:

- Probability of high
- Probability of low
- Final forecast
- Past performance
- Probability of high based upon best-estimate of probability density function
Those of us in the "show me" category already understand all of this. Which is why dhumb, et al, are the true "deniers" in here.
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Old 01-17-2015, 07:41 PM   #2015
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While I'm not aware of some specific % probability that temperatures will rise X degrees in Y years, I suspect the probability of a several degree rise in temperature by the end of the century is quite high/likely, far more likely than not and the more prudent scenario to plan for.

Oh, so much for the putative temperature plateau, 2014 was the warmest year since modern records have been kept (since the mid 1800s IIRC).
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Old 01-17-2015, 11:14 PM   #2016
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While I'm not aware of some specific % probability that temperatures will rise X degrees in Y years, I suspect the probability of a several degree rise in temperature by the end of the century is quite high/likely, far more likely than not and the more prudent scenario to plan for.

Oh, so much for the putative temperature plateau, 2014 was the warmest year since modern records have been kept (since the mid 1800s IIRC).
Prudent? So you are the one person on this planet who has the ability to understand and calculate all of the costs and benefits that will flow from your plan? Amazing.
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Old 01-17-2015, 11:42 PM   #2017
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Originally Posted by Zell View Post
Because they report "This is going to happen," which is the worst way to report something. They're not fortune tellers.

What they don't report are the probabilities of the events that they are predicting, and then people get pissed.

A good example of this was the L'Aquila quake, where 7 scientists were sent to jail because they said there wasn't going to be an earthquake. What they should have done is given the probability of Quake and No Quake.

Another example would be the UK Meteorological Office's UK forecast for April 2012. They said that it would be drier than average, but it ended up being the wettest on record. Again, what they should have done is given the probabilities of those events:

Probability of Very Dry: 25%
Probability of Very Wet: 15%

This is why you always give the forecasting range and probabilities. This is the proper way to forecast.

They give these in the papers, but since people don't like actually reading and learning, journalism interns at news stations just pick it up and dumb it down to absolutes. Then they give their opinion of what they think in the headline, because facts are too hard to read.

When I give forecasts, I report:

- Probability of high
- Probability of low
- Final forecast
- Past performance
- Probability of high based upon best-estimate of probability density function
Get out here with that logic. Ain't nobody got time for probabilities.
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Old 01-18-2015, 10:49 AM   #2018
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Prudent? So you are the one person on this planet who has the ability to understand and calculate all of the costs and benefits that will flow from your plan? Amazing.
Hardly, and there are many studies/analyses showing that the long-term costs of doing nothing significantly outweigh the costs of addressing AGW now. However, that is a well grounded argument that acknowledges the reality of AGW and I wish the right would engage in more deeply. Perhaps it would be cheaper to simply adapt, though I tend to doubt that. Or at the very least, harness market forces to address the issue (cap and trade for example).

There are precedents for this. It's due to our array of air pollution laws, regs and standards that our children aren't breathing air like Bejing's. Do these laws have an immediate cost? Of course, just price out a new cat converter for your car. However, look at a gaggle of children squealing on a playground not choking on Bejing-quality air and make the argument against such standards based on immediate costs.
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Old 01-22-2015, 08:22 AM   #2019
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http://news.sciencemag.org/climate/2...-real-not-hoax
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Old 01-22-2015, 09:41 AM   #2020
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Doesn't specify human caused climate change probably.
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