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Old 02-03-2015, 09:38 PM   #2041
Cabrio330
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rhumb View Post
Making which claim?
Start by diagramming your sentence containing the subject word.
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Old 02-04-2015, 10:08 AM   #2042
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Since your being charmingly coy.

Subject word: "claim."

Quote:
"The claim that climate models systematically overestimate global warming caused by rising greenhouse gas concentrations is wrong," says Jochem Marotzke.
Isn't this precisely the claim many/most AGW deniers make: that these climatogist's models are merely part of some sort of vast climatoligist conspriracy overstating (perhaps erroneously, presumably intentionally) AGW effects in order to steal our freedoms and shackle freedom-loving 'Muricans under the yoke of a communist one-world government or something equally silly?
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Old 02-04-2015, 11:30 AM   #2043
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You said:

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...it has still been warming precipitously the past decade or so...
Assuming "it" refers to global temperatures, your claim that they have been rising "precipitously" is absurd. But I gave you the benefit of the doubt and suggested maybe you just didn't know the meaning of the word "precipitously."
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Old 02-04-2015, 01:12 PM   #2044
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Originally Posted by Cabrio330 View Post

Assuming "it" refers to global temperatures, your claim that they have been rising "precipitously" is absurd.
You're absolutely correct, it's totally an absurd claim.



http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/

But human logic is limiting, so everything on that page is 150% false.
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Old 02-04-2015, 01:15 PM   #2045
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I do and against the long term geological record, global temperatures overall (not just atmospheric but oceanic, the vastly larger heat sink) have been rising precipitously, which is not simply my own claim but one that reflects the conclusions of the vast majority of climatologists, meteorologists and climate organizations.
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Old 02-04-2015, 01:16 PM   #2046
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I do and against the long term geological record, global temperatures overall (not just atmospheric but oceanic, the vastly larger heat sink) have been rising precipitously, which is not simply my own claim but one that reflects the conclusions of the vast majority of climatologists, meteorologists and climate organizations.
Yeah well you're wrong because blog post and WSJ
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Old 02-04-2015, 01:21 PM   #2047
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you guys are hilariously alarmist
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Old 02-04-2015, 02:12 PM   #2048
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And yet another "alarmist" claim, this time from that vast AGW conspiracy:

Quote:
Warming Trend Continues in 2014
Press Release
2 February 2015

14 of 15 Hottest Years Have Been in 21st Century

Geneva, 2 February 2015 (WMO)

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has ranked 2014 as the hottest year on record, as part of a continuing trend. After consolidating leading international datasets, WMO noted that the difference in temperature between the warmest years is only a few hundredths of a degree - less than the margin of uncertainty.

Average global air temperatures over land and sea surface in 2014 were 0.57 C (1.03F) above the long-term average of 14.00C (57.2 F) for the 1961-1990 reference period. By comparison, temperatures were 0.55 C (1.00F) above average in 2010 and 0.54C (0.98F) above average in 2005, according to WMO calculations. The estimated margin of uncertainty was 0.10C (0.18F).

"The overall warming trend is more important than the ranking of an individual year," said WMO Secretary-General Michel Jarraud. "Analysis of the datasets indicates that 2014 was nominally the warmest on record, although there is very little difference between the three hottest years," said Mr Jarraud.

"Fourteen of the fifteen hottest years have all been this century. We expect global warming to continue, given that rising levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the increasing heat content of the oceans are committing us to a warmer future," he said.

Around 93% of the excess energy trapped in the atmosphere by greenhouse gases from fossil fuels and other human activities ends up in the oceans. Therefore, the heat content of the oceans is key to understanding the climate system. Global sea-surface temperatures reached record levels in 2014.
More.



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Old 02-04-2015, 02:17 PM   #2049
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Old 02-04-2015, 02:27 PM   #2050
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TIL facts are alarmist.
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Old 02-04-2015, 03:05 PM   #2051
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0 net gain or loss where I live. Nothing to see here.
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Old 02-04-2015, 03:30 PM   #2052
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And yet another "alarmist" claim, this time from that vast AGW conspiracy:

LOL, if you just squeezed that chart a little more, that "precipitous" 0.025 degree change over the last decade would be damn near a vertical line. That would serve your alarmist agenda better and really scare the hell out of people.
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Old 02-04-2015, 03:48 PM   #2053
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0 net gain or loss where I live. Nothing to see here.
I just ate lunch. There is no world hunger.
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Old 02-04-2015, 03:53 PM   #2054
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0 net gain or loss where I live. Nothing to see here.
i turned on my tap and clean water came out. what water shortage?
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Old 02-05-2015, 09:42 AM   #2055
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you guys are hilariously alarmist

Yes, objective NASA data is very alarmist. But using simple linear regression on Temperature vs. CO2 (in Microsoft Excel) is a much more accurate way of displaying it.

So far, the counter-arguments have consisted of scientifically-equivalent Dr. Oz logic. Let's take a look at a good example of Dr. Oz logic:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cabrio330 View Post
LOL, if you just squeezed that chart a little more, that "precipitous" 0.025 degree change over the last decade would be damn near a vertical line. That would serve your alarmist agenda better and really scare the hell out of people.
Ah, yes, I remember when I took Statistics 101!

The chart is actually statistically sound, containing no unnecessary white space, and is of correct proportions for time-series data. So actually, using your logic, the chart is technically longer than it is higher, which would make the line even shallower. Essentially, you just proved yourself wrong.
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Old 02-05-2015, 09:50 AM   #2056
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Apparently Cabrio knows the acceptable slope of temperature increase. Cabrio, what is a negligible temperature change and can you provide evidence to support your assertion that it is negligible?
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Old 02-05-2015, 10:06 AM   #2057
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Apparently Cabrio knows the acceptable slope of temperature increase. Cabrio, what is a negligible temperature change and can you provide evidence to support your assertion that it is negligible?
This is the right way to show it, duh.

Make sure you include as much white space as possible, and arbitrarily choose a maximum reference number based upon how you feel. Be sure that your reference is as far away as possible from the maximum point that the data has seen within the time range, and extrapolate using a simple regression that fits your predetermined notion of where you think it might go. Bonus accuracy points if you use Excel.

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Old 02-05-2015, 10:35 AM   #2058
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Lol all your math skills mean nothing if the data isn't accurate
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Old 02-05-2015, 10:40 AM   #2059
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Why isn't the data accurate?
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Old 02-05-2015, 10:42 AM   #2060
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Lol all your math skills mean nothing if the data isn't accurate
Except that it is, and that the study of variability is statistics, and takes into account measurement error. It's pretty easy to understand a confidence limit, and that variability exists in every single measurement. There are solutions to all of these problems. The simplistic argument of "Yeah well it's wrong" isn't going to work here.

Quote:
This independent data set reproduces both annual variations and centennial trends in the temperature data sets, demonstrating the robustness of previous conclusions regarding global warming.
Quote:
The independent estimate of TL2m from 20CR demonstrates that, in spite of recently published [Pielke et al., 2007; Fall et al., 2011; Montandon et al., 2011] and public [Christy, 2012] concerns with the station temperature record, the temperature analyses [Brohan et al., 2006; Hansen et al., 2010; Vose et al., 2012a; Jones et al., 2012; Japan Meteorological Agency, unpublished data, 2012; Harris et al., 2013] used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [Trenberth et al., 2007] and many others for climate science and for input to climate policy [IPCC, 2007] are reliable and robust estimates of large-scale TL2m variability and change
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