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Old 09-21-2016, 04:28 PM   #41
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Originally Posted by Act of God View Post
Outweighs the bad for whom? Did you read Friedman's article on it that I posted? There's a huge backlash against this globalist agenda, and for good reason.

Again, this isn't "free" trade. This is corporatism and cronyism under the guise of free trade.

Enjoy your Mexican Fords!
I'll read it later....had client meetings all afternoon.

You do know the Mexico Ford thing is a non-issue, or a fabricated one by the Trump Branchians, right? There are no US jobs lost by FOrd transferring small car lines to Mexico. It freed up lines here, so that they could hire more people to build the upcoming Bronco.
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Old 09-21-2016, 04:32 PM   #42
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Originally Posted by evolved View Post
I'll read it later....had client meetings all afternoon.

You do know the Mexico Ford thing is a non-issue, or a fabricated one by the Trump Branchians, right? There are no US jobs lost by FOrd transferring small car lines to Mexico. It freed up lines here, so that they could hire more people to build the upcoming Bronco.
1. Is it your position that the Mexico Ford thing is a fabrication? An outright lie?
2. Are you telling me that there will be ZERO net jobs lost?
2. Are you telling me that you think Ford needs as many employees to build one SUV as their entire small car lineup?

bollocks
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Old 09-21-2016, 04:34 PM   #43
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Did we trade a real economy for a fake?

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Originally Posted by Act of God View Post
1. Is it your position that the Mexico Ford thing is a fabrication? An outright lie?

2. Are you telling me that there will be ZERO net jobs lost?

2. Are you telling me that you think Ford needs as many employees to build one SUV as their entire small car lineup?



bollocks

For someone that wants a free market and for businesses to have less regulation you come off as rather hypocritical.

It seems Ford is using Mexico's factor endowment of cheaper labor.


See Heckscher-Ohlin theory, and the modern theories of International Trade

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Old 09-21-2016, 04:39 PM   #44
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I can't find anything that seems reputable that confirms the Bronco is actually being built, BTW. Every article I see just shows the old Bronco concept vehicle from like 2003.
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Old 09-21-2016, 04:50 PM   #45
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Originally Posted by Act of God View Post
1. Is it your position that the Mexico Ford thing is a fabrication? An outright lie?
2. Are you telling me that there will be ZERO net jobs lost?
2. Are you telling me that you think Ford needs as many employees to build one SUV as their entire small car lineup?

bollocks
https://www.wired.com/2016/09/ignore...od-us-workers/

http://www.redstate.com/brandon_mors...ets-destroyed/

1. Of course not, don't be a jabroni.
2. Yes.
3. More than j ust the Bronco are being built....big, high dollar, high profit trucks are the main thing.
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Old 09-21-2016, 04:59 PM   #46
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Originally Posted by MDydinanM View Post
For someone that wants a free market and for businesses to have less regulation you come off as rather hypocritical.

It seems Ford is using Mexico's factor endowment of cheaper labor.

See Heckscher-Ohlin theory, and the modern theories of International Trade
Not hypocritical at all, this is market fixing through regulation. These deals create enormous barriers to entry that prevent true competition. This is why there is such a revolving door between the corporate world and the government and why they work so close together in crafting regulations. The big guys can withstand the storm while the little fish flop around until they're dead.

This is not the free market. This, again, is trading American economic security and stability for market and corporate gains. Some people win (like those who work in the market), many others lose (working middle class).

Unless we're prepared to buy these people off with entitlements, basic income, etc. something needs to change.

edit: Also important to note is the wage effect these deals have. Jobs leave, people stay. This creates a labor surplus, which has a depressing effect on wages. Add an accelerating rate of immigration and the problem only compounds as the labor surplus surges while the jobs available wane.

It isn't our job to create Mexico's middle class, and it certainly isn't our obligation to do so at the expense of our own. Enjoy your 401k, though, while you still have it!
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Old 09-21-2016, 05:00 PM   #47
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btw, from Evolved's post

Quote:
One of NAFTA's biggest political goals, for example, was to spur industrialization in Mexico in the hope of reducing economic disparity among the bloc's members.
Reducing economic disparity...damn, where have I heard that sort of talk before????? busted
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Old 09-22-2016, 10:51 AM   #48
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Originally Posted by Act of God
I liked this article from him

http://www.mauldineconomics.com/this...lth-of-nations
Free Trade, Politics, and the Wealth of Nations
BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN


I take issue with your non-partisan label here, as it is irrelevant to this discussion. This is one area where democrats and republicans work together. There's a reason Bush is supporting Hillary.

Us v. them
John Mauldin

The boy who cried wolf.

He didn't pen the article, but the dude is a shyster.

In any event, what, in your opinion, is the solution to the problem you identify? Protectionism? Isolationism? Tariffs? "America First" is not the correct answer because it means something different to every person.



Quote:
Originally Posted by Act of God
This is not the free market. This, again, is trading American economic security and stability for market and corporate gains. Some people win (like those who work in the market), many others lose (working middle class).
Prove it. More middle class manufacturing jobs have been lost to automation, technical advancements and other non-NAFTA related factors than they have to any other major force. I've asked several times to show me, from an economic/numbers standpoint, how NAFTA has been a net loss for the country and all I see are appeals to emotion and hyperbole.




Quote:
Originally Posted by Act of God
It isn't our job to create Mexico's middle class, and it certainly isn't our obligation to do so at the expense of our own. Enjoy your 401k, though, while you still have it!


While you still have it...gimme a break. Do you think it benefits us, in a broad sense, to have a stronger economy in Mexico?

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Originally Posted by Act of God View Post
btw, from Evolved's post



Reducing economic disparity...damn, where have I heard that sort of talk before????? busted
Good job picking out one item amongst a myriad of others. You're all about that soft target!
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Old 09-22-2016, 10:55 AM   #49
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Dude, the article was written by the guy who founded stratfor, that's why I posted it haha

Come on
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Old 09-22-2016, 11:00 AM   #50
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Dude, the article was written by the guy who founded stratfor, that's why I posted it haha

Come on
I know, hence why I made the comment I did, lol
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Old 09-22-2016, 12:58 PM   #51
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Originally Posted by evolved View Post
In any event, what, in your opinion, is the solution to the problem you identify? Protectionism? Isolationism? Tariffs? "America First" is not the correct answer because it means something different to every person.
The problem, as I see it, is that there is a class that is intertwined with government that is passing regulations and pushing trade deals to their own benefit (typical normal behavior). The issue is that they would not be able to exert this influence in a true free market. They are wielding the power of government to rig the game in their favor. This is never a good thing in the long term.

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Prove it. More middle class manufacturing jobs have been lost to automation, technical advancements and other non-NAFTA related factors than they have to any other major force. I've asked several times to show me, from an economic/numbers standpoint, how NAFTA has been a net loss for the country and all I see are appeals to emotion and hyperbole.
(more or less) Every job sent to Mexico is a job that would still be a job here. If it were cheaper to go automation those jobs in Mexico wouldn't exist. What we did was make it easier for the intertwined corporations to pack it up and ship out to cheaper pastures, taking their jobs and tax dollars with them. The companies that aren't big enough to have international production lines are therefore unable to compete. Again, the game is rigged from the top.
[/quote]

Quote:
While you still have it...gimme a break. Do you think it benefits us, in a broad sense, to have a stronger economy in Mexico?



Good job picking out one item amongst a myriad of others. You're all about that soft target!
I picked out that line because it stood out as a Wizard of Oz moment.

We have no obligation to help Mexico, China or any other country build their middle class. In fact, it only damages our own and our own standing in the world.

The country was never better off than when it had a strong middle class, both socially and economically. People with jobs don't have time to riot. If you're comfortable with a strong market, record profits and a permanent dependent underclass that's your business. I know it's bad in the long run.

I remain a proponent of free trade. I remain an opponent of crony capitalism.
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Old 10-06-2016, 10:21 AM   #52
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The quiet catastrophe of men choosing not to work

http://www.nationalreview.com/articl...ampaign%3Dwork
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Old 10-06-2016, 10:31 AM   #53
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The quiet catastrophe of men choosing not to work

http://www.nationalreview.com/articl...ampaign%3Dwork
Isn't Goerge Will a "globalist"?
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Old 10-06-2016, 12:37 PM   #54
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Isn't Goerge Will a "globalist"?
Your face is a globalist!

#sickburnbrah
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Old 10-10-2016, 11:47 PM   #55
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Apparently I'm not the only one who dares question these deals

http://www.epi.org/blog/naftas-impact-workers/
NAFTA's Impact on U.S. Workers
Quote:
By establishing the principle that U.S. corporations could relocate production elsewhere and sell back into the United States, NAFTA undercut the bargaining power of American workers, which had driven the expansion of the middle class since the end of World War II. The result has been 20 years of stagnant wages and the upward redistribution of income, wealth and political power.

NAFTA affected U.S. workers in four principal ways. First, it caused the loss of some 700,000 jobs as production moved to Mexico. Most of these losses came in California, Texas, Michigan, and other states where manufacturing is concentrated. To be sure, there were some job gains along the border in service and retail sectors resulting from increased trucking activity, but these gains are small in relation to the loses, and are in lower paying occupations. The vast majority of workers who lost jobs from NAFTA suffered a permanent loss of income.

Second, NAFTA strengthened the ability of U.S. employers to force workers to accept lower wages and benefits. As soon as NAFTA became law, corporate managers began telling their workers that their companies intended to move to Mexico unless the workers lowered the cost of their labor. In the midst of collective bargaining negotiations with unions, some companies would even start loading machinery into trucks that they said were bound for Mexico. The same threats were used to fight union organizing efforts. The message was: "If you vote in a union, we will move south of the border." With NAFTA, corporations also could more easily blackmail local governments into giving them tax reductions and other subsidies.

Third, the destructive effect of NAFTA on the Mexican agricultural and small business sectors dislocated several million Mexican workers and their families, and was a major cause in the dramatic increase in undocumented workers flowing into the U.S. labor market. This put further downward pressure on U.S. wages, especially in the already lower paying market for less skilled labor.

Fourth, and ultimately most important, NAFTA was the template for rules of the emerging global economy, in which the benefits would flow to capital and the costs to labor. The U.S. governing class-in alliance with the financial elites of its trading partners-applied NAFTA's principles to the World Trade Organization, to the policies of the World Bank and IMF, and to the deal under which employers of China's huge supply of low-wage workers were allowed access to U.S. markets in exchange for allowing American multinational corporations the right to invest there.

The NAFTA doctrine of socialism for capital and free markets for labor also drove U.S. policy in the Mexican peso crisis of 1994-95, the Asia financial crash of 1997 and the global financial meltdown of 2008. In each case, the U.S. government organized the rescue of the world's bank and corporate investors, and let the workers fend for themselves.

Despite the rhetoric, the central goal of NAFTA was not "expanding trade." After all, the U.S., Mexico, and Canada had been trading goods and services with each other for three centuries. NAFTA's central purpose was to free American corporations from U.S. laws protecting workers and the environment. Moreover, it paved the way for the rest of the neoliberal agenda in the US-the privatization of public services, the regulation of finance, and the destruction of the independent trade union movement.

The inevitable result was to undercut workers' living standards all across North America. Wages and benefits have fallen behind worker productivity in all three countries. Moreover, despite declining wages in the United States, the gap between the typical American and typical Mexican worker in manufacturing remains the same. Even after adjusting for differences in living costs, Mexican workers continue to make about 30% of the wages of workers in the United States. Thus, NAFTA is both symbol and substance of the global "race to the bottom."
http://www.cfr.org/trade/naftas-economic-impact/p15790
Quote:
Critics of the deal, however, argue that it is to blame for job losses and wage stagnation in the United States, driven by low-wage competition, companies moving production to Mexico to lower costs, and a widening trade deficit. The U.S.-Mexico trade balance swung from a $1.7 billion U.S. surplus in 1993 to a $54 billion deficit by 2014. Economists like the Center for Economic and Policy Research's (CEPR) Dean Baker and the Economic Policy Institute argue that this surge of imports caused the loss of up to 600,000 U.S. jobs over two decades, though they admit that some of this import growth would likely have happened even without NAFTA.

Many workers and labor leaders point to these numbers to blame trade, including NAFTA, for the decline in U.S. manufacturing jobs. The U.S. auto sector lost some 350,000 jobs since 1994-a third of the industry-while Mexican auto sector employment spiked from 120,000 to 550,000 workers. CEPR's Baker argues that econometric research shows that increased trade also puts downward pressure on wages for non-college educated workers, who are more likely to face direct competition from low-wage workers in Mexico.
A little back and forth

http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate...-for-americans
Are Trade Agreements Good for Americans?
Quote:
Over the last 20 years, trade and investment deals have increased U.S. trade deficits and cost Americans their jobs. The agreement allowing China into the World Trade Organization led to trade deficits that eliminated 3.2 million jobs between 2001 and 2013 alone. Meanwhile, the United States already faces a trade deficit with countries in the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership that cost 2 million U.S. jobs in 2015 - a trade deficit which would surely get worse if the pact is enacted. But lost jobs are just the tip of the iceberg of trade's broader effect on the economy.

In his 2008 book, "Everybody Wins, Except for Most of Us," my colleague Josh Bivens shows that while the most privileged Americans have benefited from some cost-saving "efficiency gains" due to trade, increased global integration can harm most working Americans. Recently, Bivens estimated that the growth of trade with low-wage countries reduced the median wage for full-time workers without a college degree by about $1,800 per year in 2011.

Workers without a college degree make up more than two-thirds of the U.S. labor force, roughly 100 million people. Thus, the growth of globalization, as encouraged by more than 20 U.S. trade and investment deals, plus the proposed T.P.P., is responsible for transferring approximately $180 billion per year from low- and middle-income workers to those in the top third, and especially to those in the top 10, 1 and 0.1 percent of the population.

It didn't have to be this way. Trade and investment deals like Nafta and T.P.P. are highly complex legal texts, written to favor multinational companies and large investors. A well-known economist once noted that a "free trade agreement" could be two pages long and simply say that all tariffs are eliminated between two or more countries. The T.P.P. has 30 chapters and thousands of pages of inscrutable legalese. These rules expand copyright and patents raising the profits of drug makers, software companies and Hollywood. The T.P.P. will also expose U.S. consumers to unsafe imported food, empower large corporations to attack U.S. health and environmental standards, and roll back Wall Street reforms.

It is time for a reset in U.S. trade and international economic relations. We must put an end to unfair trade practices such as currency manipulation, which is the single largest cause of U.S. trade deficits and trade-related job losses. The United States needs to develop a results-based approach to trade negotiations that is designed to rebalance global trade and ensure that the benefits of trade are broadly shared, and not funneled to those with the most wealth and power in our society.
and

Quote:
My studies of the impacts of Nafta, China trade and other trade deals employ the same methodology used by Jeff and Hufbauer in their original, 1993, pre-Nafta projection, but I looked at the actual changes in trade deficits following these deals rather than forecasts. An all-but-identical methodology has been used in trade and jobs studies done by the staff for the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and in a study of trade and offshoring by two scholars with the Brookings Institution, among many others. Growing trade deficits with Mexico eliminated nearly 700,000 U.S. jobs between 1993, the year before Nafta took effect, and 2010. And major trade deals since Nafta have been followed by rising trade deficits that cost even more jobs, as I argued earlier.

Trade and investment deals have also made it easier for firms to offshore production, which has decimated American manufacturing production in the last 20 years. More than 80,000 manufacturing plants were lost between 1998 and 2013 alone, which contributed to the 5.3 million manufacturing jobs the United States lost between April 1998 and February 2016. (Yes, the Great Recession in 2008-2009 was responsible for part of these losses, but we are still far below 1998 employment levels in manufacturing today largely because of stubborn trade deficits.)

The vast majority of traded goods are manufactured commodities. And manufacturing jobs pay much better than other jobs, especially those created since the last recession. As a result, more than 60 percent, or over 400,000, of the nearly 700,000 jobs lost because of the U.S. trade deficit with Mexico were in manufacturing. Likewise, of the 3.2 million jobs lost due to the growth of our trade deficit with China, more the 75 percent, or 2.4 million jobs, were in the manufacturing sector. Thus, the impact of free trade and investment deals have not been in any way positive for manufacturing, nor for the vast majority of other U.S. workers.

The majority of our trade deficits and manufacturing job losses are because of currency manipulation by China and about 20 other countries, including Japan, Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam in the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership. These policies act like a subsidy of 30 to 40 percent on all of their exports to the United States, and a tax on all of our exports to those countries, and to all other countries where we compete with their exports (essentially, the rest of the world).

The elimination of currency manipulation could create between 2.3 and 5.8 million U.S. jobs in the next 3 to 5 years, and increase U.S. gross domestic product by $288 billion to $720 billion (between 2 percent and 4.9 percent). About 40 percent of the jobs gained would be in manufacturing, creating between 900,000 and 2.3 million U.S. manufacturing jobs. This win-win-win proposition would also increase tax revenue and reduce safety net expenditures, decreasing federal budget deficits by between $107 billion and $206 billion per year.

Trade and investment deals are not just about reducing trade barriers. They reflect choices that affect the shape of the economy. We could design and negotiate trade agreements that harmonize social protections and raise the living standards of working people in every partner countries, instead of negotiating trade deals that encourage multinationals to outsource production to low-wage locations that are willing to offer the most policy concessions. This dynamic does our poorer trading partners no favors at all.
Seems like this issue isn't the no brainer some posters here would like to proclaim
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Old 10-11-2016, 07:02 AM   #56
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I've read the EPI opinion piece by Faux before.....the issue I have is that he shows zero work as to how he came to his figures and conclusions. It's an opinion piece with big words.

I'll read the others later when I get to the office.

Edit: And, again, you always like to address the softest targets that may, or may not be real. "Apparently I'm not the only one who questions these deals." "Seems like the issue isn't a no brainer..." NAFTA could use some modernization and tweaks, without a doubt. However, it's not this disaster deal that Trump, and others, claim it to be. No one serious in here is saying that you shouldn't question it, or that there are no problems with it.
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Old 10-11-2016, 07:17 AM   #57
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Originally Posted by Act of God View Post
The quiet catastrophe of men choosing not to work

http://www.nationalreview.com/articl...ampaign%3Dwork
The White House released a report on this in June

https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/def...e_male_lfp.pdf
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If you want to make a statement that we all ought to get on board to fight poverty, I'm with you. If you want to say that we ought to fight income inequality I'm not with you at all. Because I don't think that the rich guy stole from the poor guy. In fact rich people don't get rich by stealing from poor people because it turns out poor people don't have money.
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Old 10-11-2016, 07:45 AM   #58
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Quote:
Originally Posted by evolved View Post
I've read the EPI opinion piece by Faux before.....the issue I have is that he shows zero work as to how he came to his figures and conclusions. It's an opinion piece with big words.

I'll read the others later when I get to the office.

Edit: And, again, you always like to address the softest targets that may, or may not be real. "Apparently I'm not the only one who questions these deals." "Seems like the issue isn't a no brainer..." NAFTA could use some modernization and tweaks, without a doubt. However, it's not this disaster deal that Trump, and others, claim it to be. No one serious in here is saying that you shouldn't question it, or that there are no problems with it.
I only bring this up because you seemingly have taken a position that no reasonable person could take issue with these trade deals. It seems to me that reasonable people can intellectually disagree as to their effects and benefits. Seems like it comes down to deciding who we want to benefit here, as there appears to be a trade off (no pun intended). Equally stunning is the fact that the people pushing for worker's rights, higher wages and environmental regulations are the ones enabling our largest corporations to skirt the very laws they are pushing.

I also rather enjoyed the line about a free trade agreement only needing to be a few words long...not thousands of pages.

Your edit seems to have softened your stance, however.
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Last edited by Act of God; 10-11-2016 at 07:46 AM.
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Old 10-11-2016, 07:45 AM   #59
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bimmerfan08 View Post
The White House released a report on this in June

https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/def...e_male_lfp.pdf
Yup, something is happening and it doesn't look good.
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Old 10-11-2016, 09:11 AM   #60
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Originally Posted by Act of God View Post
I only bring this up because you seemingly have taken a position that no reasonable person could take issue with these trade deals. It seems to me that reasonable people can intellectually disagree as to their effects and benefits. Seems like it comes down to deciding who we want to benefit here, as there appears to be a trade off (no pun intended). Equally stunning is the fact that the people pushing for worker's rights, higher wages and environmental regulations are the ones enabling our largest corporations to skirt the very laws they are pushing.

I also rather enjoyed the line about a free trade agreement only needing to be a few words long...not thousands of pages.

Your edit seems to have softened your stance, however.
I am of the opinion that NAFTA's positives have outweighed the negatives. There is no perfect trade deal, and where there is give, there is take, generally speaking. This position is backed up by stats, historical data and agreed upon by most economists. I know you will say something about globalism, or some such, but that's not an argument.

My stance hasn't softened, as I've always been of the opinion that there is room for improvement, as with anything of this magnitude. Improvement, by the way, does not equal some tariff based, protectionist version of mercantilism that Trump & Bernie advocate for.

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/artic...ed-the-u-s-too

^^^I like this article, right up until the last couple of paragraphs. Dwyer does a good job of reiterating some prior points in this thread, and others re: NAFTA. The conclusion, as I mentioned, is where I stray, but that doesn't invalidate the bulk of the article.
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